ETH faces a dual liquidation trap: 1.434 billion in short positions above, 1.042 billion in long positions below

According to the latest news, Ethereum is currently under a dangerous squeeze of liquidation pressure. If ETH breaks above $3,258, the cumulative short liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $1.434 billion; conversely, if it falls below $2,951, the long liquidation strength will reach $1.042 billion. Currently, ETH is trading around $3,097, trapped between these two key levels.

Asymmetric Distribution of Liquidation Pressure

According to Coinglass data, ETH faces clearly asymmetric liquidation pressures on the upside and downside:

This indicates that the market is more crowded with short positions above. If ETH breaks above $3,258, it could trigger a chain reaction of short liquidations, potentially pushing the price higher. Conversely, the downward pressure from long liquidations should not be underestimated; if the price drops below $2,951, stop-losses and forced liquidations among longs may accelerate the decline.

Current Market Context

From recent information, market volatility has become quite significant. In the past 24 hours, total contract liquidations across the network reached $215 million, with ETH liquidations amounting to $58.36 million. This shows that market participants are already under considerable loss pressure.

Meanwhile, ETH has declined by 3.80% over the past 7 days and by 0.75% in the last 24 hours. Under this downward pressure, the stop-loss levels for longs are becoming more vulnerable.

Whales’ Movements Indicate Market Sentiment

It is worth noting that the behavior of large holders shows differing market interpretations. Bitmine has recently staked a total of 1.08 million ETH, worth approximately $33.3 billion, reflecting institutional confidence in ETH’s long-term value. However, in the past 24 hours, a large amount of ETH has been transferred into Beacon deposit contracts (40,320 ETH), indicating some investors are locking in profits at current prices.

Possible Scenarios Triggering Liquidation

From a technical perspective, ETH is currently positioned between two liquidation levels, which is the most dangerous spot—any upward or downward breakthrough could trigger chain reactions of liquidation.

Scenario 1: Break above $3,258 — possibly triggered by positive news (such as ETF approval, ecosystem developments) or technical breakout. Once breached, the $1.434 billion short liquidation could create positive feedback, rapidly pushing prices higher.

Scenario 2: Drop below $2,951 — possibly due to worsening market risk sentiment or macroeconomic pressures. Although the $1.042 billion long liquidation below is slightly smaller than the upside, during a decline it tends to be more abrupt, potentially causing a rapid price drop.

Summary

ETH’s current liquidation pressure map clearly outlines market risk points. The $1.434 billion short liquidation strength above is greater than the $1.042 billion long liquidation below, indicating a more cautious market stance on the upside. However, any breakout in either direction could trigger large-scale liquidations, amplifying price volatility.

For traders, it is crucial to recognize that $3,258 and $2,951 are not just technical levels but also trigger points for liquidation. In this market structure, risk management is more important than predicting the direction.