2026-01-13 00:50:19

#密码资产动态追踪 $DOLO $DUSK $BTC

Don't rush to call a bear market! What does Bitcoin's 36% decline actually imply?

Bitcoin has dropped again, this time falling 36% from last October's $126,000. As accounts shrink, many start to shout that a bear market is coming. But data speaks for itself—looking back at 2013, 2017, and 2021, the declines after peaks ranged from 50% to 70%. We've only fallen 36% this time, which is still far from that.

Moreover, this correction only took 46 days to rebound. Comparing with the past, the mid-term retracement in 2024 lasted 147 days, and in 2025 it was 77 days. The timing and magnitude align with cyclical patterns. Frankly, this doesn't look like a bear market.

Most interestingly, Bitcoin has already regained the 50-day moving average at $89,400. Buyers are regaining the upper hand, and technical signals are very clear. Institutions haven't been idle either—Strategy recently invested $1.25 billion in one go, adding 13,600 BTC, bringing total holdings to 687,400 BTC, with an average cost of $75,000. These large holders' costs and actions, to some extent, serve as a bottoming reassurance.

After the 2024 halving, Bitcoin's bull cycle was already incomplete. Now, with continuous inflows into institutional ETFs, this might truly change the previous pattern of four-year bull and bear cycles.

What do you think? Will the bottom be at $80,000? Can this year break through the old high of $126,000 and reach new highs?

BTC0,39%

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FromMinerToFarmer

· 3h ago

The institutions' move to buy the bottom is indeed telling a story, but I still think 80,000 won't hold. If they push down again, we might see the 70,000s.

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GateUser-afe07a92

· 20h ago

Institutions are pouring in 1.25 billion, while retail investors are still debating the decline. The gap is really huge, haha.

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SoliditySlayer

· 21h ago

Institutions pouring money is like building a ladder for us; don't be fooled by the bears.

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GasFeeWhisperer

· 01-13 01:18

Institutional疯狂 buying is the real signal, retail panic selling is the best opportunity, this wave is unstoppable.

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ShitcoinConnoisseur

· 01-13 01:15

Rebounded in just 46 days, institutions are still pouring money in. This time is really different.

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Layer2Observer

· 01-13 01:14

The fact that it rebounded in just 46 days is quite interesting, and it indeed doesn't match the sluggish pace of past bear markets. However, regarding the institutional holding cost of 75,000, one point needs clarification— is this the average cost or the latest building position price? If it's the average price, its reference significance is somewhat diminished.

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GateUser-19076b9a