2026-01-13 01:21:52

Seeing Bitcoin drop from its October high, many people are starting to call for a bear market. But a closer look at the data suggests it might not be that simple.

This correction is indeed eye-catching—36% decline over 95 days sounds quite alarming. But looking back at the records, after the cycle peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021, the declines during those periods ranged from 50% to 70%. In comparison, the current 36% isn’t the harshest. Moreover, the correction only took 46 days to stabilize, much shorter than the 147 days in 2024 and 77 days in 2025. From a data perspective, this looks more like a normal mid-cycle correction rather than the start of a bear market.

What’s more worth noting is that Bitcoin has already risen above the $89,400 50-day moving average, with buyers regaining the initiative. This technical signal is quite clear. The actions of institutions also reveal clues—Strategy recently invested $1.25 billion to buy 13,600 BTC, now holding 687,400 BTC with an average cost of only $75,000, which shows they are backing the price with real capital.

From the halving cycle perspective, after the April 2024 halving, according to historical patterns, the bull market cycle is not yet over. Now, with institutional ETF inflows continuing, the idea of a four-year complete cycle might already be broken. The institutional trend has changed the game.

So the question is—do you think the bottom of this correction will be at $80,000? Can this year break through the previous high of $126,000 and set a new record?

BTC1,27%

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OnChainArchaeologist

· 01-13 21:58

Institutions invest 1.25 billion in increased holdings, this is the real signal. Why are retail investors panicking?

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GateUser-a180694b

· 01-13 01:51

Institutions invested $1.25 billion to support the market, indicating they don't believe this is a bear market. --- A 36% decline compared to historical levels isn't really a big deal; retail investors are just easily scared away. --- $80,000 bottom? I bet it won't happen. If the 89,400 moving average can't hold, then it's really something. --- Breaking the halving cycle is a bit of a revelation; institutionalization has indeed changed the rules. --- This Strategy operation looks like they're taking over the position. Are we retail investors just copying the playbook? --- Can the previous high of 126,000 really be broken? Anyway, I wouldn't dare go all-in. --- Good-looking data is just that—good-looking. But whether the 88,100 moving average can hold depends on other factors. --- A group of people shouting bear market is really just trying to buy cheap chips; don't be fooled. --- Institutions' cost basis is 75,000. Our current level is nothing; it shows there's still hope ahead. --- Noticeable correction + institutional support—these signals don't look pessimistic. --- A 36% drop over 95 days, in the context of historical cycles, is quite manageable; it's just a psychological hurdle. --- If the 89,400 moving average is broken, it would be a bit mysterious. We'll have to see the next support level then.

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AirdropNinja

· 01-13 01:48

The institution invested chips worth 75,000, now at 89,400 and just having a meal. This spread is comfortable... indicating it hasn't bottomed out yet.

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RegenRestorer

· 01-13 01:48

Institutions are accumulating at a cost of 75,000. Is this still called a bear market? Wake up, everyone. This is just the main force absorbing shares.

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ApyWhisperer

· 01-13 01:32

Institutions invest 1.25 billion to support the market? It seems that big players are much more aware than retail investors; a 36% drop is really nothing.

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GweiTooHigh

· 01-13 01:22

Well... the data is indeed convincing. A 36% decline is nothing in history; back in 2013, it was cut in half directly. Our generation is much happier haha The institution's crazy money injections to support the market are too obvious. A single Strategy deal of $1.25 billion shows that big whales don't believe in the bear market nonsense. --- Once again, it's the "cycle has been broken" argument. I can see through the layers, but honestly, breaking the 89,400 level and surpassing the 50-day moving average does show some signs. --- Is 80,000 the bottom? I don't think so. Institutions' cost basis is only 75,000. They won't let cheap assets appear so easily. The bottom is definitely higher than 80,000. --- The halving cycle theory should have been revised long ago. Now is the era where institutions decide the market rhythm. Retail investors are still playing with old tricks. --- 126,000? There's a good chance to break through this year, but the premise is to first get through this correction smoothly. It's too early to draw conclusions now.

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