ETH's recent weekly candlestick trend, simply put, is oscillating within the range of 2624 to 3450.

As everyone knows, trading mainly involves two rhythms—trending markets and ranging markets. Here’s a rough proportional concept: 80% of the market time is spent grinding sideways and testing lows, while only 20% is in a true trending move. Therefore, most of the time, what you need is not chasing highs and selling lows, but operating within limited space, buying low and selling high in a back-and-forth manner.

From January 8th until now, it has been five full days of ranging. Yesterday, there was indeed some positive news that pushed the price up, but upon closer inspection, it seemed more like retail traders reacting impulsively to rumors. Although the volume looked substantial, this kind of rise usually doesn’t go far and isn’t the handiwork of the main players. Someone asked me if the 4-hour level had broken, and I initially said it basically had. Now, thinking back, that judgment was indeed not cautious enough.

In reality, the true trend signals have not yet appeared. If the 1-hour timeframe is to initiate a move, it would typically be accompanied by a medium-sized bullish candle and moving averages converging, forming a clear bullish alignment. Currently, there’s a bit of a bearish tone, but it’s not yet the time for a genuine decline. The key point to watch is the long-term 4-hour moving average— that line is still supporting, so there’s no need to rush to conclusions.

There should be more definitive signals today; let’s see.