2026-01-13 01:25:36

Recently, I noticed an interesting phenomenon. According to on-chain analysis data, Bitcoin's implied volatility has fallen back into the low expectation range, indicating that the market's volatility expectations for the upcoming period are not that intense—basically preparing for a relatively calm cycle.

In the short term, the demand for hedging has indeed decreased significantly. But there's a detail worth noting: once volatility picks up again, because position adjustments will be based on the latest information, the price reaction could be incredibly fast.

Another signal is that the profit-taking volume of long-term Bitcoin holders has cooled to levels typically seen only during shallow bear phases. This situation usually accompanies high uncertainty—either a stagnation in the mid-bull market or a precursor to the early bear market. The specific scenario will depend on subsequent trading volume performance.

BTC3,07%

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SilentAlpha

· 11h ago

Calmness is an illusion. Once volatility kicks in, the speed can be so fast that you can't react. I understand this very well. --- Profit-taking has cooled down to this level, and it feels like a trend reversal is not far off. --- So now it's just waiting for the confirmation of volume, right? Otherwise, who knows what the next situation will be. --- Low volatility traps are indeed common; beware of that sudden wave. --- Long-term holders are all cooling off. This point is indeed a bit interesting. --- To put it simply, the uncertainty is extremely high, and the feeling of a gamble is very strong. --- I've been saying that volume is very important, but it seems like the volume just can't pick up. --- I just want to know how long this calm can last. It feels like it could explode at any moment.

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ForumMiningMaster

· 01-13 01:55

When volatility drops, they pretend to be calm. I've seen this trick too many times. Waking up to find the bottom broken through is common; be careful of being hammered by overnight market moves. The signal of long-term account reduction is a bit creepy. Without volume, everything is just empty; it all depends on how it unfolds later. The most annoying stage is when there's no rise or fall, it's so boring to death.

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FlyingLeek

· 01-13 01:55

When volatility drops, it tends to lull you into complacency, and when the black swan event actually occurs, the reaction is so quick that you're caught off guard... This is the insidious nature of the market.

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OnChainDetective

· 01-13 01:54

nah the "calm before storm" narrative is getting old... but gotta admit the wallet clustering data here is sus. those ltc profit-taking patterns? traced through multiple hops and something doesn't add up

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TokenomicsDetective

· 01-13 01:46

During calm periods, it's easiest to get caught off guard. Once volatility kicks in, you need to react super fast, or you'll get liquidated even while you're sleeping...

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MEVictim

· 01-13 01:43

Volatility has dropped so low, it feels like the calm before the storm.

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