Gold Price Cycle Analysis and Current Trading Layout

Last night's rally was driven by multiple positive factors such as institutional adjustments to gold price expectations, continuous central bank gold purchases, and Fed rate cut expectations. After breaking through 4630, the price lacked additional capital to follow, coupled with short-term profit-taking pressure, leading to a back-and-forth oscillation between 4590-4600, entering a low-volatility consolidation phase.

The market still consensus on these bullish factors, and the bulls are not in a rush to push higher. This pause provides us with an opportunity to reassess.

From a technical perspective: 4590-4600 is the key support zone from yesterday's pullback, and below 4580 becomes the short-term bull-bear dividing line. On the 4-hour chart, the price remains above the moving average, RSI has not entered overbought territory, and MACD momentum above the zero line remains intact—indicating the bullish pattern is not broken. However, shrinking volume at high levels is a warning sign, alerting us to the possibility of a secondary dip after a volume-less rebound.

Trading strategy: Lightly go long in the 4590-4595 range, with a stop below 4580. The upper target is 4610-4615. If the target is reached and selling pressure appears with significantly increased volume, decisively reduce positions. The final direction confirmation depends on the performance at the target level or a breakdown thereof. Similar technical approaches can be applied to Bitcoin, Solana, and other assets.