Supply and demand game leads to crude oil oscillation and accumulation; the medium-term rebound pattern remains unchanged

In the early trading session, crude oil fluctuated narrowly around 59.730, after spiking to 59.870 overnight and then slightly retreating. Currently, it is trading within the range of 59.660-59.870, showing a generally strong consolidation trend. Short-term technical adjustments do not alter the medium-term rebound logic, which is primarily driven by the multiple factors of supply and demand patterns, geopolitical disturbances, and policy regulation.
Fundamentally, supply-side support remains solid: OPEC+ and the eight major oil-producing countries have clearly stated that they will pause production increases from February to March 2026, easing concerns over supply glut; the additional 1.2 million barrels per day from non-OPEC+ countries is hedged by their production control strategies. The short-term impact of US-Ukrainian geopolitical conflicts is limited and has not changed the supply-demand balance. Although demand is structurally weak, signs of marginal improvement are emerging: resilient demand in Asian markets supports the outlook, and the Fed's increased expectation of rate cuts in 2026 boosts demand recovery prospects. The annual demand may follow a "low before high" pattern.
Technical and fundamental factors resonate: the 4-hour chart shows oil prices rebounding from a low of 55.780, with the upward trend intact after breaking through the 59 level; the MACD bullish structure remains unbroken. Although there is some short-term stagnation, a correction within the 59.30-59.50 range is possible, which is normal accumulation. Institutional net short positions have marginally decreased, and bearish sentiment is gradually being digested.
Trading strategy: Focus on buying the dip during corrections, entering long positions in the 59.30-59.50 range with a stop-loss below 59.00; initial targets are 60.00-60.30, with a breakout aiming for 60.80.
Key points to watch: OPEC+ production policy adjustments, Fed rate cut pace, and the impact of Russia-Ukraine peace talks on Russian oil exports. The current pullback is a good opportunity for low-level accumulation, and a medium-term rebound pattern can be expected.