The political test of the Federal Reserve's independence is unfolding. Recent pressure from the Trump administration on the Fed has intensified, and market concerns about the dollar policy outlook are spreading rapidly.

Data reflects the market's true reaction: the Bloomberg US Dollar Index fell 0.3% in a single day, marking the largest one-day decline in a month; S&P 500 futures dropped 0.7%, with risk sentiment clearly weakening; the 10-year US Treasury yield broke through 4.20%, indicating strong expectations of rising long-term interest rates. Leading institutions like JPMorgan Chase are warning that long-term rates may spiral out of control, and funds such as Invesco and Lombard Odier have collectively adjusted their US bond positions, drawing attention to European and Asian assets.

Lessons from history are worth reflecting on. Policy interventions during Nixon's era in the 1970s ultimately led to a decade of stagflation, and the recent weakening of central bank independence may risk a similar scenario. The global trend of de-dollarization has already become apparent—US dollar reserves have fallen to a historic low of 40%, a figure that itself says something.

Macro traders are increasing their short positions on the dollar. Interestingly, after gold rose 65% in 2025, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are both evaluating a target price of $6,000 per ounce. Can the AI boom hedge systemic risks? This has become a focal point of recent trader discussions.

When central bank policy space is limited, capital seeks new safe-haven outlets—gold, non-US assets, or allocations in cryptocurrencies like $DOLO, $DUSK, $ZKP? The answer may vary from person to person, but a clear trend is that global capital is re-evaluating the core status of the dollar.