2026-01-13 02:02:41

#密码资产动态追踪 The Ethereum Dilemma in 2026: Three Overlooked Systemic Risks

Recently, the market has been hyping the story of ETH breaking 10,000, but after years in the crypto space, I feel compelled to openly discuss some less popular truths.

The survival crisis Ethereum faces in 2026 may be more severe than most imagine. Don't misunderstand—this isn't pessimism, but a calm observation of reality.

**The first sharp issue: The rise of L2 is draining the mainnet**

Layer 2 solutions like Base and Arbitrum have indeed solved speed issues, but at what cost? The liquidity on the mainnet is continuously flowing out. Now, Ethereum's main chain is increasingly resembling a "pure settlement layer," with declining transaction activity and shrinking fee revenue. If this logical chain breaks, the deflationary mechanism supporting the entire network value will also fail. This is much more dangerous than it sounds.

**The second issue comes from competitors**

Solana has already gained a significant lead in speed and user experience. Whenever high-performance applications and new capital flood into more capable public chains, Ethereum's outdated architecture becomes increasingly incompatible. By 2026, as the developer ecosystem and DApp scale tilt toward Solana and parallel EVM chains, Ethereum is likely to become a forgotten player—once a king, now replaced by new contenders.

**The third risk lies in the contradiction between regulation and centralization**

To meet compliance requirements, Ethereum's PoS validation system has become increasingly centralized. A few top node operators hold the network's decision-making power. If global regulators take major action in 2026, targeting these key nodes, the so-called "decentralization spirit" that once defined Ethereum could be publicly shattered.

Ultimately, there are no eternal emperors. If Ethereum cannot resolve its ecosystem fragmentation within this time window, a collapse may be just around the corner. $ETH

ETH7,16%

ARB10,01%

SOL4,5%

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ETHReserveBank

· 8h ago

Listen up everyone, L2 is really bleeding the mainnet dry, liquidity is flowing out incredibly fast. Stories of surpassing 10,000 are nice to hear, but the real Achilles' heel is the broken logical chain, and transaction fees are already starting to drop. Solana is indeed much faster, developers are shifting their focus there. If 2026 really arrives, ETH might become a relic, and this is not just scare tactics. The most outrageous thing is that centralized mask, once regulators slam the table, a few top nodes will be finished. Decentralization going bankrupt in public is not impossible, and that’s truly heartbreaking.

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Blockchainiac

· 22h ago

Tired of hearing stories about surpassing 10,000, the real problem is L2's crazy bleeding of the mainnet... With transaction fees shrinking so much, how can ETH hold up? Solana's ecosystem is taking off, but our architecture is still so outdated, developers will leave sooner or later. Once regulation comes, nodes will be attacked, and the facade of decentralization will be exposed... 2026 will really be a show. There are no eternal kings—this hits the heart. Those who are all-in now must be feeling pretty anxious.

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CryptoSurvivor

· 22h ago

Tired of stories about surpassing ten thousand, the real problem is that L2 has drained the mainnet, and that's the fatal issue. The fight for market share among sol has been happening for a while, and ETH still wants to lie back and count money. Once regulation arrives, node operators will be exposed; decentralization is just talk.

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pumpamentalist

· 22h ago

L2 are all vampires; Base and Arbitrum have drained the mainnet, cutting transaction fees in half. Someone should have pointed out this logic long ago. Solana is really rubbing Ethereum into the ground; by 2026, it will directly become a retirement home. Old coins are just destined for this fate. That bunch of centralized validation nodes—once regulated heavily, they will tear apart the veil of decentralization. No one can really save them. The phrase "There is no eternal king" is a bit harsh, but it's not wrong.

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SerLiquidated

· 22h ago

The story of surpassing ten thousand sounds really exciting, but with L2 draining so much, how many more years can the mainnet last? It feels like Solana is already eyeing the opportunity. --- Not to be pessimistic, but the old architecture really can't keep up, and that's the most heartbreaking part. --- When regulation comes, nodes become centralized and exposed. Still have the nerve to talk about decentralization? That's hilarious. --- Wait, if the fragmentation isn't solved by 2026, we're cooked... --- The once-dominant player has been beaten by new contenders. I've seen this script too many times. --- The shrinking of transaction fees is real. Do you feel it, or is it just me? --- Base and Arbitrum have solved the speed issue but drained Ethereum. This deal... is a bit of a loss. --- But on the other hand, if Ethereum really crashes, what can we do? Anyway, we're all used to gambling (laughs). --- If the deadlock of ecological fragmentation can't be broken, then there's truly no hope.

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GateUser-e19e9c10

· 22h ago

Over ten thousand? I think that's a joke. L2 has long drained the mainnet, transaction fees keep decreasing, and this logic will eventually collapse. Developers on Solana have already left. In 2026, what is ETH still bragging about decentralization for? Once regulation comes, all nodes will collapse. That's the real killer move. The king will eventually fall, everyone.

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AllInAlice

· 23h ago

Tired of hearing stories about breaking 10,000... The logic of L2 draining the mainnet should have been clarified long ago. Now they still want to rely on a deflationary mechanism? That's probably too naive. The Solana ecosystem is heading that way; by 2026, it might really become a "historical relic"—not just a dream...

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