#策略性加码BTC $DOGE Technical Rapid Assessment

Dogecoin's bearish logic has already played out, and the rebound is essentially a loading point for the short sellers—this judgment needs to be validated across multiple timeframes.

First, look at the 4-hour chart. From the surge at around 0.156 to the current pullback, the entire trend has completed a typical failed rally + distribution at high levels. The price is firmly pressed down by the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with the upper band continuously declining, and all three bands are flattening and converging. What does this indicate? Momentum is dissipating, and the bullish driving force is clearly weakening.

What more clearly illustrates the issue is the MACD indicator— a death cross has already formed and has been operating below the zero line for a long time, with no obvious signs of volume shrinking in the green bars. This is not a simple shakeout; it’s a gentle but persistent distribution process.

Switching to the 1-hour timeframe, the situation becomes more intuitive. The price repeatedly fails to hold above 0.14, with highs continuously decreasing and lows gradually probing lower, forming a standard weak downward channel. Every rebound is accompanied by insufficient volume, and the MACD shows weak recovery, presenting a typical pattern of weak rebounds under strong suppression.

The current price neither signals a trend reversal nor is it a safe zone for bullish entry. Instead, it appears to be the most convenient position for the main funds to suppress the price.

Operationally: consider short positions in the 0.1385 – 0.1400 range, with the first take-profit target at 0.135, and the second target aiming at the 0.132 – 0.130 zone.

The core logic boils down to two points: before the key resistance level is effectively broken, all rebounds are traps; and until the structural support holds with volume, the bulls are only barely maintaining.