Spot Silver Intraday Analysis on January 13

**Macro Perspective: Easing Policies + Supply and Demand Mismatch + Safe-Haven Warming**

The Fed's policy shift is already quite clear — by the end of 2025, interest rates will have been cut by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. Fed Governor Milani even explicitly expects a total of 150 basis points of rate cuts by 2026. Market expectations for easing are growing stronger, directly leading to a continued decline in real interest rates, significantly lowering the holding cost of silver, and laying a solid macro foundation for a price rally.

Supply and demand are also improving in tandem. The global silver supply-demand gap is expected to widen to 203 million ounces (about 631 tons) by 2026, which is no small figure. Mine silver has declined for five consecutive years, while industrial demand in sectors like photovoltaics and electronics has increased by 5.0% year-over-year. The tight supply-demand balance is becoming more apparent, continuously supporting prices. Additionally, the world's largest silver ETF added 533.01 tons in a single day, creating a resonance between fundamentals and capital flows. Under this scenario, silver prices are unlikely to weaken.

Geopolitical and exchange rate factors are also contributing. U.S. intervention in Venezuela's regime has triggered instability in South America, and Middle Eastern geopolitical risks show no signs of easing. Dual safe-haven sentiments are driving funds into the precious metals market. Moreover, many central banks are accelerating their "de-dollarization" process, increasing demand for silver as a strategic reserve asset. These factors combined are providing multiple supports for silver's upward movement.

**Technical Perspective: W- Bottom Breakout Stabilizes**

The daily chart has completed the breakout of the W bottom pattern. After the neckline at $80 was established, the price is now in the retracement confirmation stage following the breakout. The price is trading between the upper and middle bands of the Bollinger Bands, with the channel opening upward, indicating a relatively stable medium- to long-term bullish framework.

For specific operations, 82.8 is the entry point — this is the retracement level of the neckline after the daily W bottom breakout, and it also resonates with the 60-day moving average on the 1-hour chart for support. The quick rebound after yesterday’s retracement to this level has validated its support.

Adding positions can be considered at 81.8, which is the support of the 5-day moving average on the daily chart. It corresponds to a 10% retracement of the recent upward wave from 80.0 to 83.9, representing a reasonable correction zone within a strong rally. This level also coincides with the upper boundary of the previous consolidation range, further strengthening support.

A stop-loss should be placed at 81.1, which is the confluence of the previous breakout platform's upper boundary and the upward trendline on the daily chart. Falling below this level would invalidate the retracement after the W bottom breakout, likely reversing the short-term upward trend.

Overall, consider going long at 82.8, adding at 81.8, setting stop-loss at 81.1, with targets of 86-88.

This is solely personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice.