The notion of central bank independence has always been overstated. Look at how it actually works—the President nominates governors on a staggered schedule, gradually reshaping the institution with loyalists over time. What sounds like institutional autonomy on paper dissolves pretty quickly when you control the appointment process.

Within a single Presidential term, this power dynamic becomes obvious. Each new administration brings its own slate of nominees, tilting policy direction toward their priorities. For markets—especially crypto markets sensitive to monetary tightening and easing cycles—this matters immensely. When policy independence erodes, you get less predictable decision-making patterns. The supposedly rules-based framework becomes more discretionary.

Historically, we've seen this play out through interest rate decisions and quantitative measures that ripple across asset classes. Whether it's traditional markets or digital assets, understanding this political layer beneath institutional independence helps explain why certain policy shifts feel abrupt. The facade of independence masks a slower institutional capture that accelerates with each new term, fundamentally altering how markets should price in policy risk.