Wall Street has been a bit strange lately, with institutions actually starting to research the direction of the US stock market in 2026—such forward-looking discussions are quite rare.

The logic behind this is quite straightforward. Currently, the inflation rate being stuck around 2.7% is a foregone conclusion, and the Federal Reserve is on the verge of cutting interest rates. Once liquidity is released, the suppressed funds will definitely seek an exit, with the stock market being the first to be affected. Looking at Trump's tax reform plan, the combination of tax cuts and accelerated depreciation clearly encourages companies to increase capital expenditure—how could corporate executives not be tempted?

But what truly stirs the capital markets is the practical application value of AI. This time, it's not about hype but real efficiency improvements. Goldman Sachs' estimates directly indicate the potential profit increase of the S&P 500, and this tangible growth expectation is more attractive to capital than any story.

However, don't be too optimistic. The impact of AI on employment will eventually have to be addressed, and market segmentation will inevitably follow. A broad rally across the board is unlikely. The end of the rate hike cycle, the effectiveness of reform policies, and the release of technological dividends—these three factors converging is indeed a rare window of opportunity. Currently, funds are no longer concerned with daily fluctuations; they are calculating: two years from now, what position should they occupy in the industry chain?