Analysis: Powell's investigation triggered a short-term surge in Bitcoin to $92,000, but persistent ETF outflows and weak leverage demand suppress the upward potential.

On January 13, according to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin briefly surged above $92,000 on Monday, driven by the news that U.S. federal prosecutors are launching a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Powell. Analysts question whether the Fed’s independence might be compromised, which could benefit alternative scarce assets like Bitcoin. Although this news triggered a brief rally, traders remain cautious overall, mainly due to continuous outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and weak demand for leveraged long positions. Despite the recent rebound, Bitcoin is still down about 23% from its October 2025 high, while gold and silver have hit record highs in 2026. This divergence in trends has also led traders to question whether the narrative of Bitcoin as a digital store of value is weakening. The annualized premium (basis) for Bitcoin futures remains around 5%, a neutral to slightly bearish level. Generally, when market sentiment turns truly bullish, the futures premium over spot often reaches or exceeds 10%. More importantly, Bitcoin spot ETFs have experienced a net outflow of $1.38 billion over four consecutive trading days. Even more concerning, despite Strategy increasing its Bitcoin holdings by approximately $1.25 billion over the past month, Bitcoin’s price has still failed to hold firmly above $94,000. Overall, the appeal of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies remains subdued, as reflected in ETF capital flows and weak demand for Bitcoin leveraged long positions. This suggests that the probability of an unexpected short-term surge to $105,000 is relatively low.