Why are institutions still increasing their holdings after BTC drops below 92,000?

Bitcoin experiences a brief rally before cooling off. As of January 13, BTC is priced at $91,047.46, down 1.00% in 24 hours, unable to hold above $92,000 after reaching a high of $94,395.30. Behind this seemingly simple price correction, there are underlying market participant divergences and structural dilemmas. On one side are institutional profit-taking, and on the other side are leading companies increasing their holdings against the trend. The market is engaged in a silent tug-of-war, seeking a new equilibrium.

Dual Signals in Price Adjustment

Profit-taking and long-term pressure easing coexist

Over the past 24 hours, trading volume reached $38.044 billion, with market capitalization down by $1.846 billion from yesterday. This adjustment is not intense but instead reflects market rationality. According to the latest data, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of 3,734 BTC yesterday, worth $339 million, indicating some institutional investors are taking profits near the highs.

However, it is noteworthy that on-chain data shows the selling speed of long-term holders has slowed, with net outflows retreating from extreme levels. This suggests the market is gradually absorbing long-term supply pressure, and the process of digesting overhead resistance is progressing. In other words, although some institutions are selling, the selling pressure from large holders is easing.

Clear divergence in institutional attitudes

More interestingly, MicroStrategy increased its Bitcoin holdings by 13,627 BTC during the same period, spending $1.25 billion, bringing its total holdings to 687,410 BTC. This company, known for its aggressive Bitcoin allocation, demonstrates through action that it remains interested in current price levels.

This creates an intriguing contrast: some institutions are taking profits, while leading companies are increasing their holdings against the trend. This is not simply bullish or bearish but reflects differing risk-reward judgments among market participants.

Fragile Signals in the Derivatives Market

Bullish pressure and rising liquidation risk

In the past 24 hours, the entire network experienced $232 million in liquidations, with $143 million in long positions, accounting for over 60%. This data vividly reflects the fragility of long positions. The specific liquidation amount for Bitcoin reached $72.2751 million, with 91,638 traders liquidated, indicating market sentiment has shifted to caution.

More importantly, attention should be paid to the liquidation intensity data. If BTC falls below $86,908, the cumulative long liquidation strength on major CEXs will reach $1.613 billion. This indicates a clear risk exposure in the market; once triggered, it could lead to a chain reaction of liquidations.

Structural Dilemmas in Technicals

Repeated rallies but unable to break through

Since reaching the high of $94,395 last week, Bitcoin has failed to sustain above $92,000. After briefly trading at $92,013, it retraced below $91,000, a pattern similar to multiple occurrences in Q4 last year.

Market optimism about breaking through in Q1 is waning. Since October 10, Bitcoin has faced persistent structural resistance, with $92,000 remaining a stubborn pressure level. In the short term, the market is maintaining a range-bound pattern, and a breakout will require new catalysts.

Uncertainty in Macro Factors

US CPI data, Supreme Court tariff rulings, and other macro factors may further influence cross-asset allocations and risk sentiment. Additionally, changes in Federal Reserve chair candidates (potentially more crypto-friendly) could introduce policy uncertainties. These uncertainties keep the market cautious at current levels.

Short-term Market Expectations

Based on current technical, capital, and sentiment analysis, Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate within the $90,000–$94,000 range in the short term. Bulls need to hold above the $86,908 support; otherwise, liquidation risks will increase significantly. A breakout above $92,000 requires new positive catalysts, possibly from macro policies or large institutional inflows.

Summary

A 1% decline in BTC is not just a simple price correction but indicates a change in market structure. The coexistence of institutional profit-taking and accumulation reflects differing risk-reward assessments; the liquidation and liquidation risk in the derivatives market reveal current fragility among longs; technical resistance points to the need for stronger catalysts for a breakout. In the short term, the market is seeking a new balance near $92,000, with downside risks centered around the $86,908 support level. For investors, understanding market divergence is more important than blindly following the trend.