How will the market absorb the selling pressure when KAITO unlocks $1.8 million in a week?

According to the latest news, KAITO will unlock approximately 2.86 million tokens on January 20, 2025, at 12:00 Beijing time, valued at about $1.8 million. Although this unlock is relatively small in scale, for a project with a market cap of only $150 million, investors should stay attentive. Given the recent strong performance of the project, this unlock could become a key point in the short-term market.

KAITO Project Fundamentals Overview

Project Progress and Circulation Status

KAITO was listed for trading on February 14, 2025, and has been operating for about 11 months. The total supply is 1 billion tokens, with a current circulating supply of 241 million tokens, representing a circulation rate of only 24.14%. This indicates that a large portion of tokens has yet to enter the market, and unlocking pressure may persist.

Currently, KAITO ranks 186th in the cryptocurrency market cap list, with a market cap of approximately $152 million and a 24-hour trading volume of $135 million. Relative to liquidity, it is still quite sufficient.

Recent Market Performance

KAITO has recently experienced significant gains:

• 24-hour increase: 7.25%
• 7-day increase: 14.81%
• 30-day increase: 3.08%

The latest price is $0.630077, at a relatively high level. From the news, it can be seen that KAITO has frequently appeared in trading heat rankings over the past few days, indicating high market attention.

Market Impact Analysis of the Unlock Event

Unlock Scale Assessment

In absolute terms, an unlock of $1.8 million is not huge. However, relative to the current 24-hour trading volume, it accounts for 1.33%, which could have a noticeable impact during periods of limited market liquidity.

Potential Market Pressures

• Selling Pressure Risk: Token unlocks often face selling pressure, especially during early stages when circulation is low.
• Timing: Around January 20 may become a short-term high-risk window; investors should be cautious.
• Market Sentiment: In crypto markets, token unlocks can trigger emotional fluctuations, even if actual selling pressure is limited.
• Circulation Rate Increase: After unlocking, the circulation rate will rise from 24.14% to approximately 25.3%, further reducing project scarcity.

Possible Market Responses

Based on observations, market reactions to token unlocks depend on several factors:

• Whether the project’s fundamentals support the event (KAITO as a Web3 data platform with certain application scenarios).
• Market sentiment before the unlock (currently relatively optimistic).
• Overall market trend (if major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin strengthen, it may offset negative impacts of the unlock).
• The identity of the unlocker (institutional or individual, whether there are lock-up commitments).

Key Points for Investors to Watch

Short-term Risk Tips

Within one week before and after the unlock, investors should:

• Monitor support levels around $0.63.
• Observe whether trading volume shows abnormal fluctuations.
• Watch for signs of concentrated selling.
• Adjust positions according to their risk tolerance.

Mid-term Perspective

• The project’s circulation rate continues to rise, with more unlocks expected.
• Need to observe actual application progress and user growth.
• Pay attention to whether the market cap ranking can remain stable at the current level.

Summary

While the $1.8 million unlock for KAITO is relatively small, during the early stage of low circulation, it still warrants attention. The project is currently performing strongly, and market enthusiasm is high, which may provide some buffer for the unlock. However, investors should recognize that token unlocks are common events in project development; the key is whether the project’s fundamentals can support long-term value. It is advisable to remain cautious around January 20 and closely monitor the project’s actual progress rather than just price fluctuations.