ETH drops 1.78%, but BitMine is increasing holdings. What is happening in the market?

Ethereum today (January 13) is under downward pressure, declining 1.78% within 24 hours, currently at $3,097.83. However, behind this decline, the market shows an interesting divergence: large institutional holders are increasing their positions, US institutional ETFs are experiencing outflows, staking queues are hitting new highs, but short-term sentiment is weakening. This misalignment may indicate that the market is in a critical phase of re-evaluating value.

Short-term Pressure and Key Price Levels

According to the latest data, ETH has experienced significant volatility over the past 24 hours:

From a technical perspective, ETH is currently operating within a head and shoulders pattern, with a key support level at $2,880 (neckline area). A confirmed break below this could open up about 20% downside. The $3,090 to $3,110 range is the most critical resistance zone recently, where a large amount of historical cost basis is concentrated.

Divergence Signals in Institutional Behavior

Interestingly, the market shows clear divergence among institutional players:

BitMine continues to accumulate, providing strong support at the bottom

According to the latest reports, BitMine has added 154,208 ETH over the past week, worth approximately $479 million. Its total staked ETH has reached 1,344,224 ETH, valued at about $41.5 billion. Although recent accumulation has slowed compared to previous periods, this ongoing buying activity still provides a bottom support force for the market.

US ETFs show net outflows, indicating divergence in institutional allocations

Today, nine US Ethereum ETFs experienced a net outflow of 42,299 ETH, worth about $131.25 million. In comparison, Bitcoin ETFs saw only a net outflow of 3,734 BTC during the same period. This divergence suggests that mainstream institutional investors are more cautious about Ethereum’s short-term prospects.

Liquidation Pressure and Risk Level Layout

Market liquidation data reflect an imbalance between bullish and bearish forces:

• Over the past 24 hours, total liquidations reached $232 million, with Ethereum long positions accounting for the highest at $30.225 million
• If ETH falls below the $2,967 to $3,000 range, major centralized exchanges could see long position liquidations totaling $1.001 to $1.025 billion
• Conversely, breaking above $3,269 to $3,300 could trigger short position liquidations of only $638 million to $887 million

This asymmetry in liquidation forces indicates that the liquidity pressure from the bullish side is relatively greater, which also explains why prices remain under pressure despite solid fundamentals.

Long-term Fundamentals Continue to Strengthen

Despite short-term bearish sentiment, Ethereum’s long-term fundamentals are being reinforced:

• Staking enthusiasm remains high: Beacon Chain staking queues have reached 1.759 million ETH (about $55 billion), a new high since August 2023. New stakers must wait approximately 30 days for activation, reflecting confidence among long-term holders.
• Ecosystem expansion: USDC Treasury has burned 100 million USDC, and the Trump family’s World Liberty Markets lending platform plans to launch and support ETH and stablecoins, continuously improving Ethereum’s application foundation in stablecoins and real-world assets.
• Strategic upgrades: Vitalik Buterin released a century-long roadmap emphasizing Ethereum’s need for quantum resistance, scalability, and long-term data storage. The Ethereum Foundation has prioritized ZK-technology as a mid-term development focus.

Signals of a Revaluation Phase

Standard Chartered Bank has lowered its Ethereum price forecast for the end of 2026 to $7,500 (down from $12,000), but still expects Ethereum to “significantly outperform the market” by 2026. This outlook contrasts sharply with the current low sentiment on social media—market sentiment has fallen back to levels seen before the 2025 rally, similar to historical lows before technical bottoms.

The orderly progress of long-term mechanisms and strategic upgrades, contrasted with the current short-term sentiment weakness, suggests that the market may be in a valuation re-assessment phase.

Summary

ETH’s short-term decline is not an isolated phenomenon but reflects complex market dynamics. The continued accumulation by large holders like BitMine indicates institutional confidence in long-term value, while ETF outflows show caution among some investors regarding near-term prospects. Liquidation data reveal greater bullish pressure, but ongoing ecosystem development and staking enthusiasm support the fundamentals.

The key to understanding this divergence lies in recognizing that the short-term sentiment dip and long-term fundamentals are misaligned—this is often a typical feature before a market revaluation. For Ethereum, the $3,000 and $3,300 levels are the most critical recent price points; breaking through or falling below these will likely set the market’s next direction.