Standard Chartered Bank adjusts Ethereum forecast: recent downgrade to $7,500, the logic behind the 2030 target of $40,000

According to the latest news, Standard Chartered Bank recently released a research report that made significant adjustments to Ethereum’s price forecasts. The report includes short-term cooling expectations as well as a long-term optimistic outlook, reflecting a reassessment by institutions of the development of the Ethereum ecosystem.

Logic Behind the Adjustment of Forecast Data

The magnitude of Standard Chartered’s adjustments is noteworthy. The bank lowered its 2026 Ethereum price target from $12,000 to $7,500, its 2027 target from $18,000 to $15,000, and its 2028 target from $25,000 to $22,000. It appears that recent forecasts have fallen sharply, but at the same time, long-term predictions have been raised—2029 target increased to $30,000, and 2030 to $40,000.

What does this “short-term conservative, long-term optimistic” adjustment reflect? Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Global Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, provided an answer: Bitcoin’s weaker-than-expected performance has dampened the overall market outlook, but this has created a relative advantage for Ethereum.

Why the “Year of Ethereum”

Kendrick straightforwardly states that 2026 will be the “Year of Ethereum, just like 2021.” This judgment is based on several key supports:

Structural advantages are emerging

Ethereum’s dominance in three key areas is emphasized: stablecoins, real-world asset tokenization (RWA), and decentralized finance (DeFi). Relevant information indicates that stablecoin activity accounts for 35% to 40% of Ethereum transactions, and Standard Chartered expects that by 2028, the market size of stablecoins and tokenized assets will reach $2 trillion, with most activity occurring on the Ethereum network.

Network capacity improvements are underway

Ethereum’s development team is working to increase blockchain transaction throughput by tenfold over the next two to three years. The Fusaka upgrade activated in December 2025 has introduced technologies such as PeerDAS and Verkle trees, laying the foundation for scalability. Historical data shows that higher throughput often translates into higher market capitalization.

Favorable policies are brewing

The passage of the U.S. “Clarity Act” is viewed as a positive, with Standard Chartered expecting the bill to pass in the first quarter of 2026. Such regulatory clarity typically releases liquidity into the market.

Ethereum’s Relative Advantage over Bitcoin

Standard Chartered emphasizes a key indicator: the ETH/BTC ratio is expected to rebound to near the 2021 high of about 0.08. This means Ethereum has greater appreciation potential relative to Bitcoin.

From an institutional allocation perspective, this expectation is also supported. According to relevant information, currently 67 institutions hold 6.8835 million ETH, accounting for 5.63% of circulating supply. Among them, BitMine holds 4.07 million ETH and continues to increase its holdings. This growing institutional positioning reflects confidence in Ethereum’s long-term prospects.

The Gap Between Reality and Expectations

Currently, Ethereum’s price is around $3,098. From this level to $40,000 in 2030, the increase is approximately 1190%. This is a bold prediction, but Standard Chartered’s logic is not baseless—it is based on specific judgments about ecosystem applications, network performance, and policy environment.

It is important to note that the recent downward adjustment also signals risks. Lowering the forecast from $12,000 to $7,500 indicates that the market faces short-term pressure. The takeaway for investors is that long-term optimism does not mean no short-term risks; technological upgrades, policy advancements, and ecosystem growth all require tangible progress.

Summary

Standard Chartered’s report presents an interesting contrast: while acknowledging short-term pressures in the crypto market, institutions remain confident in Ethereum’s long-term structural advantages. The $40,000 target for 2030 is not wishful thinking but based on specific factors such as stablecoins, RWA, and network scalability. The designation of 2026 as the “Year of Ethereum” hinges on this being a period of concentrated implementation of multiple supporting factors—network upgrades, clear policy frameworks, and mature application ecosystems. From an investment perspective, the value of this report lies in highlighting the direction, but whether these factors will materialize depends on their actual realization.