What is the most heartbreaking scene in the crypto market? Watching the trend turn but always being a step behind. Waiting for the MA20 and MA60 to clearly turn up before daring to follow, only to find the meat has already been eaten clean; on the other hand, panicking and fleeing at the first sign of a moving average decline, only to realize you're caught in the middle of a mountain. 90% of retail investors keep falling into this cycle repeatedly.

Instead of passively waiting, it's better to learn how to sniff out signals in advance. The technique I want to share is called "Moving Average Offset Price." In simple terms, it’s the critical value hidden within the moving average calculation logic— it can directly tell you whether the next candlestick’s close will cause the moving average to rise or fall.

First, let’s clarify: this is not some mystical indicator, nor does it involve complex formulas. The core principle is quite simple: look at the N-period moving average. Its offset price is the closing price of the candlestick N periods ago. Pay attention—it's N candlesticks ago, not N days ago. Since crypto markets trade 24/7, judging based on candlestick periods is more accurate than natural days.

The logic is straightforward: if tomorrow’s closing price > offset price, the moving average is likely to rise; if tomorrow’s closing price < offset price, the moving average is likely to bend downward. There’s no absolute 100%, only a high probability, but this probability is enough to help you avoid most false signals and choppy traps.

Some might ask, "Can’t I just look at the slope of the moving average?" That’s a valid question, but here’s the catch— the moving average itself is a lagging indicator. When you see it turn, the trend has already traveled some distance. Especially in choppy markets, it’s easy to be fooled by false breakouts, wasting your margin. The offset price is different; it gives you an early preview, allowing you to position yourself before the trend truly unfolds.