#稳定币市场扩张 After reviewing this comprehensive analysis of the prediction market landscape, there are several on-chain signals worth paying attention to.

The role of stablecoins in this sector has shifted from being clearly speculative assets to serving as operational infrastructure—Visa launched an USDC on-chain settlement pilot in December, which is not just hype but a real reduction in friction. For products like prediction markets that are highly sensitive to liquidity, instant access and near-zero failure settlement mean a direct increase in user stickiness.

But what’s more concerning is that regulatory fragmentation is intensifying. The CFTC allows certain economic indicator contracts, while state-level regulators block sports event betting, creating a clear policy gradient. The 2026 World Cup will indeed be a stress test, but the key isn’t whether trading volume hits new highs, but which platforms can maintain liquidity during this peak window without triggering enforcement actions. The case of Polymarket illustrates this well—even with decentralized code, it still cannot escape regulatory scrutiny.

The shift in distribution patterns is also signaling something. Super apps like Robinhood and DraftKings have begun integrating prediction market features, which in turn indicates that the incremental user acquisition cost in this sector has decreased. Liquidity concentration will further increase, and the survival space for smaller platforms is being squeezed.

The direction of stablecoin policies directly impacts the ceiling of this market—if Europe and the US continue tightening regulations on private stablecoins, settlement efficiency will decline, and marginal participation costs will rise. We are still observing the European Central Bank’s stance changes and whether the US compliance pathways can truly be opened.