#Gate广场创作者新春激励 Crypto Daily(01.13): Bitcoin's Mid-term Correction Continues, ETF Fund Outflows Expand, Institutions Increase Holdings, and Ethereum Remains Bullish Long-term

1. Bitcoin Market Trends and Cycle Analysis
1. Recently, Bitcoin has pulled back from its all-time high, and there are differing opinions on whether it has peaked. Most analyses believe this is a mid-term correction rather than a full-blown bear market, as the correction (36%) is smaller than the deep declines seen after previous cycle peaks (e.g., over 50% drop within 90 days after the 2021 and 2017 peaks).
2. Technical indicators show Bitcoin has regained the 50-day moving average, signaling a short-term bullish trend. However, attention should be paid to macro factors such as resistance levels and ETF fund flows; the current correction has lasted 46 days with a decline of less than 50%, indicating a mid-term correction rather than a long-term bear market.
3. Historical cycle patterns show peaks approximately 18 months after halving events. The current correction period (46 days) and retracement (36%) align with mid-cycle correction characteristics, not the start of a long-term bear market.
2. Bitcoin ETF Fund Flows
1. Recent net outflows occurred in US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs: from January 6 to 8, Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $1.13 billion, and Ethereum ETFs outflows of approximately $258 million; on January 12, 10 US Bitcoin ETFs had a net outflow of 3,734 BTC (about $33.89 million), and 9 Ethereum ETFs had a net outflow of 42,299 ETH (about $131.25 million).
2. The outflows reflect cautious market sentiment, offsetting early-year optimism and related to continued cautiousness toward the end of 2025, which may impact liquidity in the crypto market and short-term asset prices.
3. Institutional Activity (Bitcoin Accumulation)
Michael Saylor’s Strategy raised funds on January 11 through ATM offerings, increasing holdings by approximately 12,627 BTC at an average cost of $91,519 per BTC; as of January 11, the total holdings reached over 687,410 BTC, accounting for more than 3% of the total global Bitcoin supply, solidifying its position as the largest corporate Bitcoin holder worldwide.
4. Standard Chartered Bank’s Ethereum Forecast
1. Standard Chartered has raised its long-term price target for Ethereum, expecting it to reach $40,000 by the end of 2030, citing its structural advantages (such as DeFi dominance and Layer 1 scalability progress) that could enable it to outperform Bitcoin. The ETH-BTC ratio is expected to rebound to 2021 highs.
2. In the short term, due to Bitcoin’s weak performance, the forecast for 2026-2028 has been adjusted downward. However, long-term prospects remain optimistic regarding Ethereum’s dominance in stablecoins, real-world assets, and DeFi, as well as the US “CLARITY Act” promoting DeFi development.
5. Performance of Other Cryptocurrencies and ETF Movements
1. Ethereum followed Bitcoin’s moderate rise, with some altcoins like XRP recording double-digit gains; Solana-related ETFs experienced inflows, with January 12 seeing an inflow of 36,370 SOL (about $5.09 million), while Ethereum ETFs saw an outflow of 42,299 ETH (about $131.25 million).
2. Market interest in altcoins has increased, with some mainstream tokens outperforming Bitcoin, reflecting a market preference for diversified crypto assets.
6. Bitcoin Genesis Day and Historical Significance
17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto sent 10 BTC to Hal Finney, marking the first recorded peer-to-peer Bitcoin transaction. This event is considered a significant milestone in Bitcoin history. Today, those 10 BTC are worth nearly $1 million, symbolizing the success of the trustless digital cash transfer model.
7. Specific Crypto Project Updates
1. Bitcoin-related project Bitcoin Hyper has been affected by ETF fund outflows, with short-term growth prospects under pressure. Its performance is closely tied to Bitcoin ecosystem liquidity and market sentiment.
2. DeepSnitch AI offers token contract risk audits through its AuditSnitch feature, attracting over 28 million tokens staked, becoming a market hedge option.