Let's talk about the price trend of Bitcoin in 2026. This question seems simple, but in reality, it requires considering multiple factors because predicting cryptocurrency prices is essentially a game of probabilities.

First, let's look at the conditions supporting an upward trend. The 2024 halving event has already occurred, and historical patterns tell us that after halving, there is usually a cyclical upward movement—this time is no exception. Another strong catalyst is the spot ETF, which continues to attract traditional institutional investors, changing Bitcoin's capital structure. Additionally, the shadow of global inflation has not fully dissipated, and the demand for safe-haven assets remains, further strengthening Bitcoin's position as digital gold.

But reality often throws cold water. The global regulatory environment remains a major variable; policy shifts can quickly influence market sentiment. If the macroeconomy slips into recession, risk assets generally come under pressure, and Bitcoin will find it hard to be immune. Whether technological upgrades and application deployments can proceed as scheduled also directly affects long-term value judgments.

Based on mainstream institutional analysis frameworks, a reasonable prediction range for Bitcoin in 2026 is between $120,000 and $180,000. If it successfully breaks through key resistance levels, even surging above $200,000 is not a fantasy. However, if macro risks erupt collectively, the price could also fall back to the support band of $50,000 to $80,000—this downside potential is significant, but historically, there are precedents.

Finally, I want to emphasize one point: the volatility of cryptocurrencies is notoriously high. Even the most sophisticated long-term forecasts are just static assumptions; actual investments must be adjusted in real-time based on changes in fundamentals and technical indicators. Controlling risk exposure and avoiding full positions are core principles. $BTC