Solana's price approaches $145, and market enthusiasm continues to rise. Retail and institutional investors are both bullish, and this bullish momentum is fueling trading enthusiasm.

But on-chain data has poured cold water on the optimism. The number of new wallets has plummeted from 30.2 million in November to just 7.3 million now. This contrast is quite striking.

In simple terms, the price is driven by participation. Fewer people are involved, yet the price keeps pushing higher — this is the problem. Although the fundamentals are cooling down, short-term traders are still rushing to chase the rally. Momentum traders see opportunities, while the fundamentals are left behind. Such dislocation will eventually need correction.

Solana is currently in a delicate position. Market sentiment is driving the price, but network growth must keep pace; otherwise, this rally won't have enough support.

**What does the technical analysis say?**

Solana has broken out of a months-long downtrend channel, which is a key signal. Moving from decline to rebound, structurally, this is possible.

The current price hovers around $140, with $145 ahead. Breaking through this level isn't a problem; the question is whether it can hold steady after the breakout. If it does, $150 and $170 could follow.

The MACD indicator also shows a bullish signal, with the histogram rising, indicating increasing momentum.

**But don’t celebrate too early.** The real confirmation of a reversal depends on whether the price can hold above the previous channel’s resistance level. That’s the only true test.