Recently, Elon Musk has taken new actions on Polymarket. This platform may not be as well-known as Binance or other compliant platforms, but its influence in the industry is not insignificant—currently the world's largest decentralized prediction market, where real money is used to vote on opinions. Essentially, it is a blockchain-based "oracle." Even ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, has invested over $2 billion, which shows the recognition of traditional financial giants for this track.

This is already the 25th time this dialogue has occurred, and in the past month alone, it has happened 9 times—this top global entrepreneur is not joking around. Many people think he is just causing fluctuations in cryptocurrency prices via Twitter, but the underlying logic is deeper: he is leveraging prediction markets to precisely price future expectations, which is a completely different dimension.

**Leverage Risks Are Unavoidable**

First and foremost: do not trade with leverage. This is almost a consensus among all participants, but some still suffer losses.

**Prediction Markets Are Changing Cycle Logic**

This discussion touches on a profound point—after the widespread adoption of spot ETFs, institutional capital is entering on a large scale. The previous four-year bull-bear cycle driven by halving narratives is becoming ineffective. Is it possible to say goodbye to big swings in 2026? Is it possible to shift from speculation-driven growth to steady growth driven by asset allocation?

RWA (Real Asset Tokenization) and related practical tracks are beginning to become the new underlying logic. This is not just simple hype switching but a sign of the market's increasing maturity.

**The Era of AI Autonomous Voting Has Arrived**

What is the most anticipated trend? AI robots learning to vote with "money." This is no longer the stage where AI merely acts as an analysis tool but has evolved into autonomous payments, autonomous order placement, and refining probability curves through real money games.

According to current forecasts, by 2026, AI contributions to trading volume may exceed 30%. Once large-scale AI investors enter the prediction market, market pricing efficiency will improve by an order of magnitude—this feedback loop will continue to strengthen.

The deep integration of AI and prediction markets will usher in a new era. For investors, this is both a challenge and an opportunity: markets will become more transparent, but the pace will accelerate; the value of information will be amplified, but reaction times will be compressed. 2026 is worth continuous observation.