2026-01-13 03:28:53

In the past four years, only four altcoins have broken their previous bull market highs and surpassed a market cap of 10 billion—ZEC, XRP, SOL, and XMR. Their breakthrough timings are completely different.

XRP and SOL broke through during the main upward wave of the bull market, ZEC got stuck at the end of the bull market, and XMR is quite special, reaching a new high at the turning point from bull to bear.

Looking at the percentage gains after the breakthroughs is quite interesting:
BTC increased by 82% after breaking its previous high, ETH only rose by 1.6%, and BNB surged by 99%. On the altcoin side, XRP increased by 8.6%, SOL by 13%, and ZEC jumped directly by 100%.

There is a clear pattern here—ETH, XRP, and SOL are false breakouts, with gains all within 10%. True breakouts are seen in BTC, BNB, and ZEC, which all experienced main upward waves of 80% to 100%.

Why? As the top asset in consensus, it’s normal for BTC to reach an 80% increase in its final main wave. BNB, as the platform token of a top exchange, has strong global consensus, so a 99% increase is understandable. ZEC’s 100% rise is mainly because its market cap was small at the breakout, only 4.3 billion, leaving plenty of room for a main upward wave.

This indicates a phenomenon: if a high-market-cap coin experiences a false breakout, its gains are usually around 10%. If it truly breaks out, it generally can run up 80% to 100%, rarely exceeding 100%.

XMR’s current situation is a bit different. When it reached a new high, its market cap was already close to 10 billion, so the market cap is not small. The market consensus isn’t very strong, and the main players hold a high degree of control. Plus, with the overall market in a transition from bull to bear, the main players are unlikely to take the risk of pushing it to high levels like 1000. From this perspective, XMR’s first target is probably around a 30% increase, roughly 670, which it has already nearly reached. The second target is at 50%, around 780. It’s expected that this week, a head formation will form near 670, followed by a pullback. If the second head also fails to break new highs, the major top is likely around 30%, at about 670. If it can continue to break through, there’s a possibility of pushing toward 780.

ZEC0,25%

SOL-1%

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AirdropFatigue

· 3h ago

ZEC's 100% surge this time is truly impressive; a small market cap definitely has its advantages. The logic of false breakouts and genuine breakouts indeed holds water. ETH only increased by 1.6%, which is quite disappointing; it feels like the main players have played it out. The analysis of XMR feels reliable; around 670, it's indeed time to sell some. I still remember when BNB was up 99%; exchange tokens are truly resilient. Wait, did XMR break out at the top of the bear market? Are the main players digging a trap? This round of market movement really has quite limited room for elasticity. Although the market cap is larger, XMR's consensus is indeed less stable than BTC.

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ForkInTheRoad

· 3h ago

False breakouts sound refreshing, and ETH's poor performance indeed indicates a problem. XMR's control is so tight that it peaks at 670? Still feeling too pessimistic, right? ZEC's small market is indeed very flexible, but who still cares about ZEC now? Only BTC and BNB are truly consensus; everything else is just gambling on the main players' mood. Life is like trading, you can never guess the next move. I agree with this analysis, but whether XMR can break through 780 still depends on what Grandpa Zhuan thinks. ETH up 1.6%, it’s hard to watch— is this the fate of big coins? During the bull-to-bear transition, the main players are all harvesting profits; don’t expect any major upward waves. The key is to judge genuine breakouts; this is the core of making money. SOL’s 13% increase, honestly, it didn’t truly break through; the most uncomfortable position is when it’s at a tricky spot.

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fork_in_the_road

· 3h ago

Wait, is it true that ETH is up 1.6%? That's a bit outrageous.

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CryptoNomics

· 4h ago

honestly the whole "true breakout vs fake breakout" framework is just classification bias dressed up in quantitative language. you're cherry-picking data points that fit a 10% threshold narrative when the actual variance depends on liquidity depth, derivative positions, and macro regime shifts that your model conveniently ignores.

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BlockchainBouncer

· 4h ago

ZEC this wave 100% gain is really fierce. Small caps indeed have high volatility, but do you still dare to chase now? ETH's 1.6% is truly amazing; fake breakouts are just so awkward. XMR feels like it's being tightly controlled by the main players. Is 670 the top? Then how do we play from here? BNB's 99% increase is the real main upward trend. The consensus on platform tokens is just different. XRP at 8.6%—this is the fate of a false breakout. SOL's 13% isn't that meaningful; I should have watched ZEC and BNB's moves earlier. When ZEC broke out, its market cap was only 4.3 billion. No wonder it surged 100%. Now, catching the move depends on luck. True breakouts are usually 80-100%, fake breakouts get stuck at 10%. This pattern is just perfect. XMR needs to break through 780 again? It seems the main players won't give this chance. Even at the bull-to-bear turning point, it still dares to hit new highs. XMR's main players are really ruthless.

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ChainSpy

· 4h ago

ETH's 1.6% really is incredible. After hitting a new high, it still gets mocked. This is the fate of large market cap assets. ZEC, on the other hand, took advantage of its small size to secretly rally 100%. This is how a main rally should be played. XMR's current trend looks quite uncomfortable. It seems the main players are not very eager to push further. The move from 670 to 780 might be the end of this wave. The difference between a false breakout and a real breakout is so significant. We need to carefully distinguish between them. BNB's 99% increase this wave shows that the consensus for exchange tokens is strong.

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