Gold Ten Data's latest Federal Reserve policy probability report shows that the likelihood of maintaining interest rates this month is as high as 95%, with only a 5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut.

Looking at the longer-term trend, things become interesting by March. The probability of keeping rates unchanged remains at 72.8%, but some rate cut possibilities are beginning to emerge — the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 26%, while the chance of a 50 basis point cut, though small at 1.2%, at least indicates that the market has certain expectations for future policy adjustments.

For holders of cryptocurrencies, the short-term stable policy outlook may mean that the market will pay more attention to fundamental and technical performance. Changes in the interest rate environment have always been a significant factor influencing the valuation of digital assets, and the current high probability of maintaining the status quo provides the market with a relatively certain expectation window.