ETH is caught in a $1.344 billion liquidation squeeze: with hurdles both above and below, the market dances on the edge of a knife

Ethereum is currently in a highly sensitive price range. According to Coinglass data, if ETH breaks above $3,270, the total liquidation of short positions could reach $1.344 billion; conversely, if it falls below $2,960, the total liquidation of long positions could amount to $1.071 billion. At present, ETH is trading at $3,109.84, only about 5% away from these two liquidation levels. This means that whether moving upward or downward, a chain reaction of liquidations could be triggered.

Market Situation Behind the Liquidation Data

ETH in the Crossfire

The current liquidation pressure on ETH is symmetrically distributed:

This symmetrical distribution indicates that both bulls and bears have accumulated significant leverage positions within this range. The slightly larger short liquidation scale ($1.344 billion) compared to the long liquidation ($1.071 billion) may reflect market expectations of a short-term pullback in ETH.

Recent Market Signals

According to recent reports, over the past 24 hours, total contract liquidations across the entire network reached $215 million, with ETH liquidations at $58.3 million. This suggests that the market has already experienced some degree of position clearing. Meanwhile, technical analysis shows weakening bullish momentum — the MACD histogram remains positive but is gradually shrinking, the KDJ indicator is neutral, and trading volume is declining, indicating a cooling market.

The Double-Edged Sword of Liquidation Traps

Risks of an Upside Breakout

If ETH can break above $3,270, it will trigger $1.344 billion in short liquidations. Such a liquidation scale could push prices higher, potentially accelerating the upward move. However, the current bullish strength appears to be waning, raising questions about the sustainability of a breakout.

Risks of a Downside Breakdown

Conversely, if ETH drops below $2,960, it will trigger $1.071 billion in long liquidations. Considering that recent ETH liquidations already amounted to $58.3 million, this downward liquidation scale could lead to a rapid decline.

The True Dilemma

The $310 range between these two liquidation levels is essentially the “death zone” of the current market. Within this zone, there is a lack of clear direction, with leveraged traders waiting for a breakout. Any move in either direction could trigger a chain of liquidations. This is not a stable equilibrium but a process of accumulating pressure.

Deeper Implications of the Market Context

It is worth noting that large-scale ETH staking is underway. According to reports, Bitmine has staked over 1.05 million ETH in recent days, worth more than $3.25 billion. Such large-scale staking is often seen as a bullish long-term signal, but in the face of short-term liquidation pressure, it does not directly alleviate technical stress.

Meanwhile, the TVL in the Tornado Cash pool of 100 ETH has decreased by 40% over the past week, with 120,600 ETH transferred. This change in liquidity may reflect market participants rebalancing their positions.

Possible Market Directions

Based on current data, the market may face several scenarios:

• Range-bound Breakout: ETH oscillates between $3,000 and $3,150, gradually building momentum for a breakout in either direction.
• Rapid Breakout: Triggered by a specific event, ETH quickly breaches one of the liquidation levels, sparking a chain reaction.
• Stalemate: The market remains range-bound, waiting for more information or shifts in funding conditions.

Summary

ETH is currently in a highly sensitive liquidation zone, with over $10 billion in liquidation strength waiting to be triggered on both sides. This not only reflects the accumulation of leveraged positions but also indicates market disagreement on ETH’s short-term direction. Technical signals show weakening bullish momentum and declining volume, suggesting the market is waiting for a clear signal. Regardless of the eventual breakout direction, such moves could trigger significant chain reactions of liquidations. For traders, this is a cautious period — opportunities and risks coexist within the same price range.