The winning strategy of Situational Awareness LP: How Leopold Aschenbrenner multiplies bets in the AI ecosystem

The hedge fund Situational Awareness LP has captured the attention of the financial market with extraordinary results in the first half of 2025. With a assets under management of $1.5 billion, the firm led by Leopold Aschenbrenner — former OpenAI researcher — achieved a 47% performance by leveraging general artificial intelligence infrastructure trends (AGI) and short positions against weak assets.

Leopold Aschenbrenner’s vision of the future of AI

The founder of Situational Awareness LP has articulated a clear thesis in his manifesto “Situational Awareness: The Next Decade,” where he posits that AGI will redefine the foundations of the global economy. According to his perspective, there is a critical window for the United States to consolidate its technological leadership against China in the race to develop advanced artificial intelligence systems.

Investment architecture analysis

Aschenbrenner’s methodology combines two complementary approaches: accumulation of long positions in AI infrastructure providers and hedging strategies through selective short positions. A notable case is the bet on Intel call options valued at $459 million, which contributed significantly to the returns of the period.

Emerging debates around the fund

The fund’s performance has polarized opinions in the financial community. On one hand, observers draw parallels with Michael Burry’s successful strategy during the 2008 financial crisis, recognizing the ability to identify systemic opportunities. On the other hand, analysts question whether these results reflect genuine investment mastery or simply fortunate timing in a bullish market driven by AI speculation.

International organizations such as the Bank of England and the IMF have issued warnings about scenarios of sharp correction if the expectations placed on AGI do not materialize as planned. Additionally, ethical concerns persist regarding the concentration of gains derived from technological revolutions, particularly when geopolitical competition amplifies systemic risks.