As a scarce case with a market capitalization surpassing hundreds of billions and reaching new highs, XMR's performance has set a benchmark for similar coins, and the historical pattern has experienced a new iteration in this example.

The previously summarized pattern was "large-cap coins tend to have a false breakout with a rise of about 10%, while true breakouts often see an 80%-100% increase," but this has been revised in the case of XMR. In the context of a bull-to-bear cycle, the ceiling for genuine breakouts is being lowered. Comparing ZEC's 100% increase at a market cap of 4.3 billion at the end of a bull market, the expected increase for XMR at a hundred-billion market cap is only 30%-50%. This reflects the combined effect of market cap size and market cycle: the larger the market cap and the weaker the cycle, the more limited the upward elasticity after a breakout.

This revised pattern can serve as a core reference framework for judging the breakout trends of coins, especially useful for analyzing altcoins during the transition from bull to bear markets.

XMR also confirms another rule: "Breakouts driven by dominant players controlling the market are difficult to establish as a trend." In a market environment with insufficient capital relay, even if the track itself has fundamental support, large-cap altcoins are unlikely to replicate the genuine breakout patterns seen in a bull market. To have a high probability of forming an 80% or more main upward wave in coins that break new highs later, three conditions must be met simultaneously: small market cap, strong consensus, and cycle resonance. The case of XMR is a perfect negative example, serving as a reminder for investors on how to avoid such risks.