Will tonight's US inflation data be the turning point for the crypto market?

At 21:30 Beijing time, the December US CPI data will be officially released. This set of numbers may seem ordinary, but it actually concerns the Federal Reserve's future pace of rate cuts and directly determines the market trend in the coming months. For holders, this moment is critical—like a "wind vane" decision.

The two most关注 data points

First is the unadjusted core CPI year-over-year, with an expected value of 3.80%. This indicator excludes short-term fluctuations in energy and food, providing a more accurate reflection of the fundamental drivers of price increases—the true stickiness of inflation. Second is the overall CPI month-over-month, with an expected 0.30%, directly affecting ordinary people's real feelings about the "grocery basket" and "gas tank."

Two directions, two market stories

What happens if the data exceeds expectations? That would mean inflation remains stubborn, and the Federal Reserve will be more cautious. Under the expectation that the "rate cut cycle may be delayed," the US dollar will be supported and strengthen. Conversely, risk assets like gold and cryptocurrencies may come under pressure. BTC and ETH might test short-term support levels and are likely to face a wave of adjustment.

On the other hand, if the data falls below expectations? It will fully confirm signals of cooling inflation, and market expectations for "faster rate cuts" will heat up. Investors will reassess the value of risk assets, and cryptocurrencies are expected to rise with the trend, possibly triggering a significant rebound.

How to stay rational amid volatility

At the moment of data release, market fluctuations are often the most intense. This is when impulsiveness is most likely. The recommended approach is: let emotions fly for a while, wait until the initial shock subsides, and the market direction becomes clearer before choosing to intervene. Keep a close eye on BTC and ETH, as they usually lead the market sentiment shift.

Now, it's time to ask: what kind of surprises do you think tonight's data will bring—or will it once again disrupt the market rhythm?