Curiosity drives us to explore the unknown, and the desire for knowledge pushes us forward.

The major turning point in modern economics occurred in 2008. Before that, economists, like physicists in the early 20th century, believed they had grasped the truth—by applying a few formulas, they could accurately predict market fluctuations. But what happened? Shadow banking, tail risks, balance sheet recessions—these "black swans" suddenly appeared. The logic of market operation became as unpredictable as a chaotic system, and crises became impossible to forecast.

This reminds us of the evolution of physics. The birth of quantum mechanics was monumental; Planck laid the foundation. But even Planck himself later began to resist the Copenhagen interpretation—he couldn't accept the fundamental uncertainty inherent in quantum mechanics. After all, in his worldview, Newtonian mechanics, Maxwell's electromagnetism, thermodynamics—all were so certain, so perfect. Yet reality tells us: sometimes, we can only grasp the certainty of probabilities, not the certainty of events themselves. What we can know is the probability derived from formulas for a phenomenon occurring, not that the phenomenon will definitely happen.

Economics faces the same dilemma. Imagine if cryptocurrencies or digital currencies become the primary mode of future economic operation—efficiency skyrockets, liquidity transforms—would the foundational assumptions of traditional economics still hold? Arbitrage theory, market efficiency, free-market theory... can these theories still reliably predict markets?

Once the underlying foundation is shaken, all the theoretical systems built upon it must be adjusted accordingly. This is not just an academic issue; it concerns societal functioning and personal lives. We are contemplating these questions, and we have no choice but to think about them. Because, like the principle of opportunity cost in economics—you can't have your cake and eat it too—some things are inevitable realities we must face.