Bitcoin's correlation with gold turns negative; historical patterns suggest a 50% upside potential

According to the latest news, the 52-week correlation between Bitcoin and gold has fallen to zero for the first time since mid-2022, and may turn negative by the end of January. This technical signal has historically often indicated a strong bullish trend for Bitcoin. Data shows that in similar situations, Bitcoin typically rises an average of 56% within about two months, corresponding to a price range of approximately $144,000 to $150,000. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $93,277, which suggests a potential upside of over 50%.

What Does a Negative Correlation Mean

Key Technical Signal

The divergence between Bitcoin and gold prices is a phenomenon worth noting. Usually, both assets are considered safe-haven assets and tend to have a high correlation. When the correlation turns negative, it indicates that the two are beginning to move in opposite directions—gold weakening while Bitcoin strengthening—which often signals increased market preference for risk assets.

Based on historical data, in similar cases of negative correlation, Bitcoin has typically risen an average of 56% within about two months. If this pattern holds, the target price range would be $144,000 to $150,000. At the current price of $93,277, this implies a potential upside of over 50%.

Limitations of Historical Reference

It should be noted that while historical patterns provide guidance, they are not absolute. Past performance does not guarantee future results. A negative correlation is merely a signal; whether it will materialize depends on other factors as well.

Multiple Supports from the Macro Environment

Global Liquidity Environment Shift

Analysis indicates that the current macro environment has several bullish factors supporting Bitcoin’s rise:

• Global liquidity rebound: M2 growth data shows an increase in global money supply
• Federal Reserve nearing the end of quantitative tightening: QT policies are gradually winding down, suggesting liquidity conditions may improve
• Initiation of a new monetary easing cycle: Bitwise research director Matt Hougan states that the world has entered a new easing cycle, which is generally favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin

These macro factors resonate with the technical signal of negative correlation, strengthening the bullish case.

Validation of Cycle Structure

From a cycle perspective, analysts believe Bitcoin’s current trend is mirroring the bull market path of 2020-2021. Back then, Bitcoin transitioned from a long-term consolidation phase into an upward trend, ultimately achieving significant gains. Currently, Bitcoin has moved from a long-term consolidation into the early stage of a “quasi-parabolic” rise. If this fractal pattern continues, the target price could be around $150,000.

The Critical Period Now

Bitcoin is in a sensitive time window. The correlation may turn negative by the end of January, which is a key point to watch. Meanwhile, changes in the macro environment, liquidity rebound, and cycle resonance all point in the same direction—Bitcoin may be brewing for a larger rally.

However, market uncertainties remain. In the short term, Bitcoin is oscillating around $90,000, and a breakout will require more catalysts. ETF fund flows, macroeconomic data releases, and policy developments could all influence subsequent movements.

Summary

While a negative correlation is a positive signal, investment decisions should not rely solely on a single indicator. The key points are:

• Technically, the negative correlation provides historical reference; an average increase of 50% has reference value
• Macro environment: improved global liquidity and the start of a monetary easing cycle support Bitcoin
• Cycle perspective: current trend resembles the 2020-2021 bull market, with a target near $150,000
• Timing: the end of January is a critical point for the correlation turning negative and an important node to observe future trends

Bitcoin is currently at a pivotal stage. The negative correlation, macro environment improvement, and cycle resonance all point to a bullish outlook, but whether this will materialize ultimately remains to be seen.