#2026年比特币价格展望 Bitcoin Before the 2026 US Midterm Elections: Follow the Patterns or Watch the Variables?

The critical point of the US midterm elections is approaching, and many traders are pondering: will Bitcoin follow the election and trigger a market rally this year? Looking back at historical candlestick charts can reveal some clues, but the more important thing is to understand the new developments now.

When it comes to Bitcoin during election years, there is no fixed pattern. In the 2018 midterm elections, Bitcoin was deep in a bear market, dropping from around $6,000 to $3,200 before and after the election—a complete halving; during the 2022 elections, Bitcoin fluctuated between $18,000 and $24,000, and after the dust settled, a rebound began as the Federal Reserve slowed its rate hikes. What does this tell us? The election itself is not the main factor driving the price; the real determinants are macro policy trends, institutional holdings, and the stance of regulatory authorities.

Turning to the 2026 market outlook: leading institutions are still continuously accumulating Bitcoin. By early this year, the total Bitcoin purchases by a major institutional team had exceeded $12.5 billion. This sustained institutional buying provides a solid support base for the price. Meanwhile, the US regulatory approach to the crypto industry is gradually becoming clearer. Although the Federal Reserve officials have yet to introduce substantial new policies, the market is sensing signals of regulatory easing, and enthusiasm is slowly building. Additionally, the explosion of altcoins during the Spring Festival period is diverting some funds away from Bitcoin, so in the short term, $BTC is likely to remain in a range-bound consolidation.

For traders looking to profit from this, instead of betting on dramatic changes driven by the election, it’s better to focus on two key indicators: when the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision will be announced and whether spot ETF funds are net inflows or outflows. Because in this market, yesterday’s patterns are only for reference; what truly affects your account’s returns is how current funds are moving and the market sentiment is leaning. That’s the real deal.

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