What is needed for a strong rebound in the 2026 crypto market? Market maker analysis of the three key factors

【BlockBeats】A market maker recently published a review of the OTC trading market, and some of their insights are worth discussing. In short, they believe that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle will not perform well in 2025, and the cycle for altcoins is almost disappearing. This is not a temporary adjustment but a real change in market structure.

So, for a strong market rebound in 2026, several conditions need to be met. At least one of the following three must happen—

First: ETFs and crypto treasury companies expand investment scope

Currently, US spot BTC and ETH ETFs concentrate liquidity in a few major coins, making the market appear very narrow and performance highly polarized. If more coins can be included by institutions through ETFs or corporate treasuries, the market’s breadth and liquidity could recover. With more projects involved, the ecosystem can truly become more active.

Second: Leading assets surge again, driving wealth effects

This point is quite practical. The traditional cycle in 2025 of “Bitcoin rises, then funds flow into altcoins” has basically broken down. Why? Because the average upward cycle for altcoins is now about 20 days, compared to 60 days the previous year—a threefold reduction. Most tokens are still under unlocking sell pressure and continue to decline. Only major assets like BTC, ETH, BNB, and SOL surge again, allowing funds to reflow, which can activate the entire altcoin market.

Third: Retail investors truly re-enter the crypto market

Retail investors are still investing, but their funds are mainly directed toward high-growth themes like the S&P 500, AI, robotics, and quantum computing. Coupled with the painful memories from 2022 to 2023—crashes, bankruptcies, liquidations—and the underperformance of the crypto market compared to traditional stocks in 2025, many feel that the allure of “get rich quick” in crypto has diminished. Only when retail investors return on a large scale can the market regain that frantic momentum.

Overall, any one of these three conditions being met could serve as a market turning point. What do you think? Which condition is most likely to happen first?