The precious metal of the moment: Gold Leaf consolidates at $4,455 while the Dollar and yields advance

2026-01-15 12:32:52

Gold remains steady after reaching a low of $4,407, pressured by the strengthening of the Dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields. Stronger economic indicators are preparing the market for the December Non-Farm Payrolls report. Market participants are only pricing in 56 basis points of Fed rate cuts for 2026, limiting downside pressure on the gold price. The XAU/USD closes nearly flat at $4,455 for the day, after hitting a daily low of $4,407 while U.S. Treasury bonds appreciate and the Dollar continues its recovery trend. The U.S. economic outlook has improved employment prospects ahead of the crucial December Non-Farm Payrolls report.

Gold remains stable amid a stronger Dollar and positive labor data

The U.S. Dollar advances after confirming that corporate layoffs in the U.S. significantly decreased in December. Initial Jobless Claims came in below expectations, while a more pronounced reduction in the U.S. trade deficit boosts Dollar bulls. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures performance against a basket of six currencies, adds 0.20% to 98.92 after breaking an important technical level at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of 98.87. However, to consolidate gains, Dollar buyers need a daily close above that resistance level. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Consumer Expectations Survey indicated a deterioration in inflation expectations and employment perceptions in December. According to monetary markets, a 56 basis point reduction in Federal Reserve rates is expected during 2026.

What to expect on Friday, January 9: Non-Farm Payrolls data in focus

Market participants will closely watch the December Non-Farm Payrolls report, projected at 60K jobs (below the 64K of November). The Unemployment Rate is expected to decline from 4.6% to 4.5%.

Market outlook: Labor indicators weigh on Gold

Initial Unemployment Claims: For the week ending January 3, they reached 208K, below estimates of 210K, but above the 200K of the previous week. This data reinforces signs of stability in the labor market.
Corporate layoffs retreat: The December Challenger report recorded 35,553 announced layoffs, roughly half of the 71,321 in November. Andy Challenger, Challenger, Gray & Christmas’s Head of Revenue, commented: “The year closed with the lowest layoff announcements of the period. Although December is typically slow, combined with high hiring plans, this indicates positive signals after a year of widespread layoffs.”
Trade deficit narrowing: The U.S. Goods and Services Trade Balance showed a reduction from $48.1 billion to $29.4 billion in October, surpassing expectations of deterioration to -$58.9 billion, driven by a sharp decline in imports, particularly pharmaceuticals.
Inflation and employment under pressure according to consumers: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Consumer Expectations Survey revealed that short-term inflation expectations (one year) rose to 3.4% from 3.2%, while medium-term (three and five years) remain stable at 3%. Employment expectations weakened, and those of losing a job worsened.
Robust economic growth: Following these data, the Atlanta Fed’s Nowcast GDP estimate for Q4 2025 increased from 2.7% to 5.4%.
Yield pressure on Gold: The U.S. 10-year bond yield rises nearly 2.5 basis points to 4.173%. U.S. real yields, which have an inverse correlation with Gold, increased 2 basis points to 1.903%.

Technical outlook: Gold stays between key support and resistance levels

The bullish trend in Gold remains intact, although a close below Wednesday’s low of $4,423 could trigger a decline toward $4,400. The bullish momentum shows signs of weakening, according to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which remains above its neutral line but without clear direction. To resume gains, buyers need to recover $4,500, which would open the door toward the all-time high at $4,549. Above that, $4,600 is the next target.

In case of deterioration, the first support is at the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of $4,376. A break below this level would lead toward $4,300. With increased pressure, if XAU/USD falls below $4,274 (current cycle low), the bullish structure of Gold could be significantly compromised.

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