Why Shiba Inu Lags Behind the Meme Coin Surge—And What It Means for SHIB

When the broader meme coin market surged roughly 23% in a single week, Shiba Inu only managed a 19% climb. On the surface, that 4% gap seems trivial. But in crypto trading, underperformance during a sector rally often signals deeper problems beneath the surface.

Understanding Shiba Inu’s Market Position

The word “shiba” carries cultural significance—referring to the Japanese dog breed featured in SHIB’s iconic branding. But beyond its meaning and viral appeal, Shiba Inu holds the position of second-largest meme coin by market capitalization. When a token of this magnitude moves slower than its peers during a hot market, it raises a critical question: Are buyers losing confidence?

The answer appears to be yes. While SHIB price remains in uptrend mode, the momentum lacks the aggression seen in competing meme coins. This hesitation is not random—it reflects a deliberate shift in how major players are positioning themselves.

The Whale Signal: Trimming, Not Buying

Large wallet holders tell the real story. Since early January, whales have steadily reduced their SHIB exposure. On-chain data shows holdings dropping from approximately 667.22 trillion SHIB to 666.6 trillion SHIB—a reduction of roughly 620 billion tokens.

This behavior is textbook profit-taking during strength. Rather than doubling down on gains, major holders are quietly exiting positions as prices climb. That exit pressure matters because it suggests each rally could face a ceiling as accumulated supply enters the market.

Participation Is Falling While Prices Stay Up

A healthy market advance typically brings new participants. The opposite is happening with Shiba Inu.

Active wallet addresses—a measure of genuine network usage—peaked near 7,478 on December 31. Since then, that figure has deteriorated to approximately 4,722, representing a 37% collapse in active participation. Meanwhile, SHIB price has remained elevated. This disconnect between volume and price movement raises a critical observation: the rally appears sustained primarily by existing holders rather than fresh capital inflows.

When usage metrics deteriorate alongside price stability, it often precedes a correction. New demand is the fuel that extends rallies. Its absence signals the move is running on fumes.

Volume Breakdown Shows Buying Pressure Weakening

On-balance volume (OBV)—a technical indicator that reveals whether buying or selling pressure dominates—provides the final piece of evidence. During the recent rally, SHIB’s OBV attempted to break above its established downtrend. It failed. That failure matters because it demonstrates buyers could not maintain control long enough to establish new momentum.

This explains the performance gap. While other meme coins pushed through resistance with sustained buying pressure, SHIB’s buyers stepped aside at a critical moment. The result: slower gains and mounting vulnerability.

Where SHIB Price Heads Next

Currently, Shiba Inu is defending critical support near $0.0000089, a level that has held multiple times in the recent past. As long as this floor remains intact, sideways movement is the base case.

However, if selling pressure intensifies and this support breaks, the next target emerges at $0.0000078—representing approximately a 12% decline from current levels. That pullback would not necessarily signal a major reversal; instead, it would represent a much-needed reset for the rally structure.

For momentum to strengthen again, three conditions must align:

1. Whale selling must ease and large holders must show renewed conviction
2. Active addresses must expand to indicate fresh participation returning
3. Price must reclaim $0.0000103—an earlier swing high that would restore buyer confidence

Until these conditions materialize, Shiba Inu faces a choice: either consolidate with modest gains or experience a 12% correction before the next leg higher. Either path leads to the same conclusion—the current rally phase lacks the aggressive participation needed for sustained outperformance.