XRP Technical Turnaround: When Fibonacci Levels Become Decisive

The XRP price is currently under pressure after breaking through a critical support zone. With a current quote around $2.08 and a 3.12% decline in 24 hours, many market analysts are looking at which levels can still prevent the price from falling further to $1.60. The loss of the support zone around $1.95 marked a turning point in the technical setup.

Why $1.95 Was the Pivot Point

Throughout the year 2025, the price range of $1.95 played a central role as an anchor point for XRP traders. This level was not chosen randomly — it converges with at least three key technical elements. First, the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement lies here, a tool indicating where a correction is contained within a broader movement. Second, this area touches the 89-week exponential moving average, a slow-moving average indicating deeper trend shifts.

This combination ensured that whenever XRP temporarily dipped lower, buyers became active. The zone acted as a magnetic attractor. Now that the level has been broken, this protective factor has disappeared.

The Weekly Pattern Tells a Different Story

On weekly closes, XRP remains below a descending trendline that runs from previous peaks downward. At the same time, the price is also positioned below the 8- and 21-week exponential moving averages. These two averages together form a resistance zone that marks the boundary between a trend phase and a corrective period.

As long as candles close below this, the weekly chart shows structural weakness. This is not the same as a full trend reversal, but it is a clear shift from neutral to notably weak.

What the Short Term Indicates

On the 4-hour timeframe, XRP appears within a descending channel with increasingly lower highs and lows. This pattern indicates ongoing selling pressure. The range between $2.00 and $2.05 acts as a significant resistance — each time the price tries to reach this level, new selling pressure emerges.

This short-term structuring aligns seamlessly with the weekly framework. Bulls attempt to push back at various moments but fail to establish a sustainable position above this zone.

The Next Fibonacci Target

If XRP continues to operate below $1.95, analysts will focus on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. This level is lower and could be reached if a correction deepens without a complete shift in the long-term trend. This is not an unlikely scenario given the current dynamics between supply and demand.

Why Large Market Participants Watch Weekly Closes

Whale traders and institutional players often base their strategies on how the week ends. A structural close below a crucial level triggers behavioral changes. Where retail traders previously bought on corrections, they now prefer to wait or take profits on small rallies.

This noticeably shifts the balance between supply and demand. A recovery to the lost support level requires not just a short-term move upward but consistent weekly closes above the former support zone.

Looking Ahead: What Scenarios Are Possible

In the coming weeks, the focus is entirely on weekly closes. As long as XRP remains below the descending trendline and below the aforementioned averages, the downward structure remains intact.

A genuine recovery would require the price to stabilize, then consecutively close above resistance zones and regain acceptance in the previous support area.

Until then, the lower Fibonacci levels remain part of the technical outlook. This aligns with an extended correction phase within a larger market cycle, without necessarily indicating a complete reversal of the fundamental trend.

However, the loss of $1.95 has undeniably changed the rules of the game. The upcoming weekly closes will be decisive for where XRP positions itself next.