Why is Hedera losing its position: technical analysis of HBAR between hope for ETF and bearish trend

Hedera (HBAR) continues to experience pressure despite the launch of a spot ETF. The token has fallen below key technical levels, signaling bearish control in the market. The current price hovers around $0.12, down 5.13% over the past 24 hours.

Pullback after approval: when news becomes a selling trigger

An interesting paradox occurred with HBAR after ETF approval: investors initially bought the asset in anticipation of the decision, then started to sell off positions upon the arrival of the long-awaited event. This “buy the rumor, sell the news” pattern is classic for the crypto market — hype fades, and participants shift their attention to the next catalyst.

The token’s price retreated 12% from the weekly high and is 50% below the year’s early peak. Additional pressure came from the Fed’s conservative interest rate stance, which triggered a broad sell-off of crypto assets.

ETF brings in money, but not enough

The launched HBAR ETF attracts investments, although the pace is quite modest. According to SoSoValue, $2.2 million was received on launch day, and the next day the figure increased to $29 million, accumulating a total of $32 million.

For comparison: Solana’s ETF has already attracted $154 million in inflows — five times more. The difference is explained by the scale of the platforms. Hedera is valued at $5.02 billion, while Solana exceeds $102 billion. Additionally, Solana dominates the DeFi ecosystem with 387 applications and $12.3 billion in locked value, whereas Hedera has only 23 dApps with $194 million TVL.

Technical signals indicate continued decline

The HBAR chart tells a bleak story. The weekly high was $0.2196, after which a pullback occurred to current levels. Notably, this peak coincided with a descending trend line passing through the highs since July.

The Supertrend indicator has fallen below the price — a classic sign that bears have taken control. HBAR remains below the Ichimoku cloud, and the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages have formed a “death cross” — a threatening signal for further decline.

The nearest target for the fall is the psychological level of $0.1500. Only a breakout above the descending trend line would change the bearish narrative in favor of recovery.