#美联储降息政策 Nomura's warning is worth taking seriously. After the new chairman cuts interest rates in June, divisions within the Federal Reserve will gradually surface—the economy is recovering strongly, and hawks will firmly oppose further easing, which directly conflicts with Trump's rate cut demands. The critical period is between July and November, when policy deadlock combined with signals of inflation bottoming out and the reversal of market liquidity, the risks are indeed rising.

From an on-chain perspective, this window will show clear signs of capital migration. Large positions accumulated in USD assets will sense this uncertainty in advance, and we expect to see accelerated outflows of US Treasuries and major stablecoins. Meanwhile, with the expectation of a correction in US stocks, institutions may reduce their holdings in advance. The movements of whales during this process will be very informative—who is fleeing early, who is bottom-fishing—these clues can be seen through address tracking.

Key monitoring points include: first, the flow of stablecoins to exchanges; second, changes in the pace of large withdrawals; third, the capital flow through cross-chain bridges. These are leading indicators of market sentiment turning. Good news is not a one-time event but a gradual process of being priced in.