The market in 2025 is a bit strange. Bitcoin underperformed, gold hit new highs, and the Nasdaq actually continued to rise despite tight liquidity conditions—these three assets seem to be moving independently of each other. Seeing this divergence, many investors are starting to wonder—has the old market logic really become outdated?

Renowned industry analyst Arthur Hayes offers a different perspective. He believes the issue isn't caused by a single factor but by multiple forces tugging at the market simultaneously. Because of these variables, his outlook for 2026 differs from that of most people.

**In 2025, why did these three assets move out of sync?**

Looking back at the year, Hayes notes that Bitcoin performed the worst among major assets, gold prices kept climbing, and the Nasdaq kept hitting new highs. But from a liquidity perspective, once dollar liquidity tightens, theoretically both risk assets and alternative assets should be suppressed. Yet, reality proved otherwise.

The logic behind Bitcoin's movement is actually quite clear. As a currency technology designed to counteract fiat currency over-issuance, Bitcoin's dependence on dollar liquidity is very high. In 2025, with the US credit pulse weakening and dollar liquidity tightening, Bitcoin's decline was inevitable.

So why did gold and US stocks still rise? It's not that they aren't affected by liquidity tightening, but because they are supported by "nation-level buying." Central banks around the world continue to buy gold, and policy support remains strong—this is the true source of their confidence.

This is also the key reason Hayes remains firmly bullish on holding gold—supported by ongoing central bank purchases.