## Market Status: Where is the Core of the Bull-Bear Confrontation?

Quick judgment: The long-term cycle looks positive, but the short-term cycle is in a correction phase. Currently, it is in a typical "time for space" shakeout stage.

**Key Price Levels and Technical Indicators**

Currently oscillating around $3,305. The daily chart still shows a healthy bullish alignment, with the price firmly above the EMA25 ($3,146), indicating no major breakdown in the overall trend. However, details show that the KDJ has formed a death cross at high levels, and the MACD momentum is beginning to weaken, suggesting a pullback is needed to correct the overbought indicators.

On the 4-hour chart, the contradiction is most prominent. After a large bearish candle, the price has broken below the EMA7 and EMA25 support levels, indicating short-term dominance by the bears. But one detail to note — the J value of KDJ is now only 9.37, in an extreme oversold state. According to normal rhythm, such extreme overselling often signals an imminent rebound that could break out at any moment.

Looking at the 1-hour chart, the market is attempting to form a bottom. The MACD has already formed a death cross and started to decrease in volume, but this rebound is weak, with volume not supporting it, indicating that the main force remains cautious and no one dares to bottom fish.

**Core Contradiction**

In essence, the oversold correction on the 4-hour chart is competing with the pullback pressure on the daily chart.

## Market Evaluation: ⭐⭐⭐☆ (3.5 stars)

This is not the kind of 5-star bull market where you can make money blindly, because the downward inertia on the 4-hour chart is still quite strong, and there is a real risk of further decline (the risk of being hit by a flying knife is indeed present).

But it’s far from a bad market either. The support levels on the daily chart are clear and well-defined, and with the fact that the 4-hour chart is severely oversold, there is still some opportunity in this contrast.

The high-probability logical approach is: follow the main trend of the daily chart, and use the oversold correction window on the 4-hour chart to find entry points.