2026-01-16 07:22:14

Looking at the recent performance of the MVRV indicator, it feels like we are already standing on the edge of the bull-bear transition.

This cycle is quite interesting. The retracement of short-term holders' MVRV is significantly shallower, compared to the two bear markets in 2018 and 2022—it's like comparing two different worlds. In other words, the damage that bears can inflict doesn't seem as fierce as imagined.

Bitcoin's market structure has changed greatly compared to the previous two cycles. From a technical perspective, the bearish pressure isn't as heavy. What does this really reflect? It's worth pondering.

Here's a simple explanation of how to interpret this indicator: Short-term holder MVRV compares the average cost basis of those who recently bought BTC with the current BTC price. When the value is 1, short-term holders are at the breakeven point—neither making nor losing money. Moving above 1 means they are in profit, below 1 means they are at a loss. So, this indicator can reflect the true situation of short-term chips.

BTC-0,92%

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SillyWhale

· 7h ago

The saying about the bull and bear boundary sounds exciting, but is it really a good sign that short-term chips are so resistant to decline? It feels like retail investors have all learned to be smarter this time and won't be easily cut.

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FOMOrektGuy

· 10h ago

Are the bears not that strong? Then why am I still losing, haha Hey, the short-term holder MVRV retracement this time isn't that deep, it really feels like the market's resilience has changed I didn't experience the 2018 wave, but the disastrous situation in 2022 still makes me nervous when I think about it... This time, it's definitely been much gentler Wait, are you saying the bottom is almost here? Or that this rebound isn't as fierce? The short-term chips are improving... So when will my trapped orders be freed? Is there any hope? Looking at MVRV makes me think of last year's operations, it's honestly a bit funny

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MemeCoinSavant

· 10h ago

ngl the short-term holders not getting absolutely obliterated this cycle is lowkey giving institutional accumulation energy... or maybe we're just coping? 🤔

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LayerZeroHero

· 10h ago

Hey, this time the short-term chips don't seem to be as bad, unlike before when they were being pressed to the ground and rubbed.

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WenMoon42

· 10h ago

The bear market isn't as fierce this time... It feels like the short-term chips have a pretty strong resistance.

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AllInAlice

· 10h ago

Short-term holders weren't hit as hard this time; it seems like this time is indeed a bit different.

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DataBartender

· 11h ago

Are the bears not that fierce? I feel like this round is just repeatedly testing the bottom. Don't celebrate too early. It's interesting that short-term holders haven't been wiped out, but maybe it's just accumulating weight? How can we be sure it's not a fake drop before a sharp decline? MVRV... sounds quite professional, but it still depends on volume. Good data doesn't necessarily mean the next move will be up. This cycle is different from the previous two, but that might not be a good thing. What does it mean? It suggests that no one truly understands this market trend.

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