The focus of the market in the past week has shifted to the policy game of the Bank of Japan. The yen exchange rate is currently at 158.5, approaching the critical 160 level, which has caused the market to become increasingly uneasy.

In just three days, the market's expectation of a rate hike in March has surged from 8% to 26%, a jump of 225%. Although the January meeting is virtually certain to keep interest rates unchanged, investors' attention has already shifted to three months later.

What is putting pressure on economists is that the Bank of Japan has just completed a historic rate hike, originally planning to follow a cautious "raise once every six months" approach. However, the current situation is that three-quarters of economists are warning that if the yen continues to depreciate, the central bank may be forced to act sooner and even adopt a more aggressive policy stance.

The real turning point will come with the release of the "Economic Outlook Report" next week. This will be the first time the central bank incorporates the new government's stimulus plan into its forecast framework, and this document will essentially serve as the guiding compass for the market's direction over the next six months.

For the cryptocurrency market, the impact of this cannot be underestimated. If Japan is forced to raise interest rates early to defend the exchange rate, it will directly disrupt capital flows and interest rate differentials across Asia. In the short term, funds may flow back into the yen, putting pressure on risk assets—including cryptocurrencies. But from a long-term perspective, this could be accelerating the arrival of a global liquidity turning point.

The core contradiction at present is quite clear: the central bank faces a dilemma between "defending the exchange rate" and "supporting the economy." Historical experience tells us that once the "devaluation-inflation" spiral forms, the exchange rate defense tends to come first. A currency policy storm driven by exchange rate concerns is brewing, which will have profound implications for global asset allocation.