I heard a true story. A friend at the end of the last bear market saw a new coin and went all-in without doing in-depth research. The project team was shouting slogans and releasing various announcements every day, and he followed the trend in a moment of impulsiveness. What happened? It surged to the top in three days, then halved in five days. His account was eventually wiped out.

During that time, he was completely stunned. When he finally regained his senses, he realized a fundamental truth: making money in the crypto world doesn’t rely on luck, but on seeing through who is really pushing and supporting behind the scenes.

Later, we reviewed this costly experience together, and he gradually discovered a pattern. Judging whether a coin can rise depends on two key things—whether there is big capital manipulating it, and whether there is sustained discussion and hype. Clarifying these two points helps avoid most pitfalls.

**Capital is the hard currency**

The true driving force behind a coin’s price is simple: capital. It’s not about how innovative the project is, nor how beautiful the whitepaper is written. Ultimately, what can change the market trend are those main players who dare to build positions at the bottom and aggressively buy up during sideways trading.

You will notice that some coins’ prices stay stagnant for a while, but trading volume quietly increases. There are always people taking positions at the bottom. This usually indicates that the big players are quietly laying out their plans. When they truly start to move, the price rises as if it’s a natural progression. No matter how good the story sounds, it can’t beat real money smashing the market.

**Hype is the spark that sustains the fire**

The soul of a coin isn’t in its technology but in the level of discussion. When project teams create topics and the community keeps generating momentum, that’s how the price can be maintained steadily.

Conversely, if a coin has no discussion, it’s like a TV show no one is watching—no matter how good the setting, it will only “fail.” No hype → no buyers → the final outcome is a hot opening and a cold ending.

Projects that are manipulated behind the scenes with ongoing community engagement are different. Even if there are short-term fluctuations, the main players won’t easily withdraw. They’re not after a quick surge to the top, but want to eat the entire cycle’s profit.

**Practical insights**

To survive longer and earn more steadily in the crypto world, the key isn’t obsessively staring at K-line charts, but understanding the underlying logic: Who is telling the story? Who is pouring real money into it? Who is driving this game?

Once you understand these two points, you can avoid most risks and even sniff out the early signs of a major upward wave. The crypto space is never short of opportunities; what’s missing are those who can see through the situation.