Once a popular story, now it’s time to measure with numbers.

Let’s go back to early December. A leading exchange platform made a clear move, demanding that major InfoFi platforms cease operations of incentive ranking mechanisms via API calls. This is not a subtle market shift, but a direct rejection at the platform level. Kaito then adjusted its strategic direction, shifting from the InfoFi business to an KOL brokerage model. This move essentially signifies an acknowledgment that the original model can no longer sustain itself.

Since the narrative has changed, the valuation logic must also change accordingly. The characteristics of the KOL brokerage business are quite distinct: it is a typical cash flow business, relying on human input, difficult to scale, and lacking network effects for positive feedback. Under this business model, valuation can only revert to the two hard metrics: revenue and net profit. Even under the most optimistic expectations, a fully diluted reasonable valuation should be around $100 million, not the previously hyped $500 million.

Let’s look at the token supply side. The total circulation is 1 billion tokens, with only about 298 million currently released. There are still 70% of the tokens yet to enter the market. When the core story collapses, token demand is severely weakened, and the team is in a critical period of business transformation, the role of this supply becomes very clear — it’s more like selling pressure hanging over the head, rather than some "future ecosystem dividend."

Using a $100 million FDV to back-calculate, the long-term reasonable price center for $KAITO should be around $0.1. As long as it maintains its current brokerage company positioning, without platform-level ecosystem recognition and infrastructure status, the price will eventually revert to valuation based on cash flow models. The story is over; what remains is a game of financial numbers.