Black Friday this wave of market movement, BTC really didn't disappoint. The candlestick that crashed down directly shattered the bulls' dreams, and the previous upward pattern has been completely reversed. The downtrend is now a certainty. To be honest, friends still holding onto bullish fantasies should wake up. This isn't about pouring cold water, but the hard facts laid out plainly in the market. What's the next move? Very simple—go with the trend. That’s the only rule for surviving longer in the market.

Let's first clarify the core market logic. Over the past few days, I’ve been repeatedly analyzing the 1-hour and 4-hour cycles, and my conclusion is not just empty talk. After BTC confirmed the decline this morning, the entire market rhythm changed. The previously carefully constructed upward structure was forcibly broken, just like building blocks being kicked over. It’s almost impossible to rebuild it in the short term. Here’s the key point: once the price retraces to near the critical moving averages on the 1-hour chart, it’s an excellent entry point for short positions. And this opportunity won't come just once; there’s a high probability of two waves. This is my core judgment based on the historical patterns of Black Friday and the current capital flow.

I’ve already calculated the take-profit level for the first wave, roughly around 94,500. The beauty of this level is that it’s a key support of the previous consolidation zone. Once broken, the rebound is likely to stop around this point. Instead of being greedy, it’s better to take profits when the market looks good. I’ve already opened a position myself, with a short at 96,800 set to close at this level. No need to obsess over the perfect entry point; securing steady gains from this wave is the essence of trading. After all, there are no perfect predictors in the market. Being able to grasp the high-probability trend already puts you ahead of over 90% of retail traders.

As for the opportunity and specific strategy for the second wave, we need to wait until the first wave is complete before making a judgment. The market changes in an instant, and flexible responses always outperform stubbornness.