2026-01-16 07:25:57

The freshly released US December CPI data caught the market off guard.

On January 13, 2026, the US Department of Labor released the December 2025 CPI report—overall CPI rose 2.7% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month, which was expected and not surprising. However, the core CPI was different: only 2.6% year-over-year and 0.24% month-over-month, clearly below the market expectation of 2.7%. This is the first time in nearly half a year that such a clear signal of "inflation cooling" has been shown.

Why is this happening? The details reveal the reasons. The goods sector showed obvious drag—new car prices remained flat month-over-month, and used cars even fell by 1.1%, making these two the main drivers suppressing goods inflation. Tariff-sensitive items like clothing and furniture saw some rebound, but due to missing sample data, their increase did not reach the level of "rebound-driven inflation" feared by the market earlier.

The services sector is more complex. Rent CPI rose to 0.4% month-over-month, and airline ticket prices surged 5.2%, indicating that US consumer demand remains resilient. However, inflation in core services like healthcare and transportation did not rebound strongly, and the overall downward trend in inflation was not reversed.

Another detail worth noting is that this data completely dispels the controversy from the November figures. Because of the US government shutdown in fall 2025, data collection was interrupted, and November CPI was temporarily a focus of debate due to statistical processing issues. The December data confirms that US inflation is gradually approaching the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. This has a significant impact on market sentiment.

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DegenDreamer

· 5h ago

Core CPI falls below expectations, is inflation really cooling down? Now the Federal Reserve needs to carefully consider the pace of interest rate cuts.

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FancyResearchLab

· 18h ago

Haha, core CPI breaks 2.7%, now the Federal Reserve must be laughing to death Once again, missing statistical samples and data disputes, the theoretically feasible prediction model has failed again A 1.1% drop in used cars can support half the sky? Let's do a little experiment, friends, this logic is quite interesting A 5.2% surge in airline tickets surprisingly becomes "consumer resilience"? Let me try this smart trap first Overall inflation approaching the 2% target, the question is whether this time it will get slapped in the face again like the last shutdown controversy

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FundingMartyr

· 18h ago

Core CPI dealt a blow to the market, falling well below expectations... Now the story of the Fed cutting interest rates can continue again.

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WhaleShadow

· 18h ago

Core CPI didn't expect it to be so low, which made my short positions in hand become timid... Now the Federal Reserve probably has another reason to hold.

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ApeEscapeArtist

· 18h ago

Core CPI breaks 2.6%, time to breathe a sigh of relief... but the tariff trap is still waiting.

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SwapWhisperer

· 18h ago

Core CPI defies expectations, and the bears should wake up and smile — inflation is really soft landing

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FrogInTheWell

· 18h ago

Core CPI breaks 2.7 expectations, and the shorts are comfortable with this wave... but it seems the decline in used cars isn't that significant either. Can it really withstand the pressure from tariffs?

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