Looking at this market situation, it does have a somewhat familiar flavor. Do you remember that wave at the beginning of 2022? Bitcoin plummeted from 69,000 to 33,000, then experienced a full two months of oscillating rebound, reaching up to around 48,000, before a large red candle in June directly broke through, followed by a sharp decline to 15,000.

This round of market rhythm is eerily similar. Falling from 125,000 to 80,000, then drawing an upward channel over roughly the same timeframe, rebounding to the 98,000 level. Even the time cycles match up, which is indeed a bit frightening.

But to be honest, although the technical similarities are almost absurd, the fundamental environment is actually different. Two or three years ago, it was the peak of the rate hike frenzy. Now, although there are macro uncertainties, the market is still digesting rate cut expectations. That’s a significant difference.

So the key level is at 98,000. If it can't break above, then we should be prepared for several months of continued downward trend. But on the other hand, history loves to play tricks on us — it’s not repetition, it’s rhyme. If there’s a retest, the decline and speed might also vary.