Recently, an interesting phenomenon has emerged in the market — the four-year cycle theory of Bitcoin, which has been regarded as a guiding principle, seems to be failing.

Since mid-January this year, the overall market environment has changed. The halving cycle, once considered the long-term main trend, has clearly weakened in influence, replaced by policy signals as the primary driver. This is not just a technical change but a deep shift in market trading logic.

Looking at last year's data makes this clear — in 2025, the US stock market continued to strengthen, but Bitcoin's performance lagged behind. What does this indicate? It shows that the market now responds more to liquidity expectations and policy rhythm, while overall risk appetite fluctuations have become secondary. According to traditional models, the cycle should have entered its late stage by early 2026, but current trends show investors are continuously delaying this point, with policy factors taking full precedence.

A deeper logic comes from the macro perspective — pre-election fiscal stimulus and ambiguous monetary policy boundaries have created a situation close to "financial repression." High government spending combined with suppressed real interest rates has caused the attractiveness of traditional bonds and credit to plummet. Conversely, the value of digital assets as allocation tools has risen.

Looking ahead to 2026, whether Bitcoin can surge again mainly depends on the direction of US crypto regulation legislation. The institutional demand driven by ETFs has indeed supported the market long-term, but whether more institutional funds will truly enter depends on whether the policy hand is the most critical factor.