#美联储降息政策 Seeing the US Treasury MOVE index drop from 99 at the beginning of the year to 59, marking the largest annual decline since the 2009 financial crisis, the first thought that came to my mind was: the historical weight behind this number.

We all experienced the sharp decline in 2009. At that time, the market was panicked, and the soaring volatility reflected the fear of a collapse of the entire financial system. However, this year's Fed rate cut cycle has led to the opposite outcome—volatility hitting record lows, indicating that market expectations for the economy are gradually stabilizing, and risk premiums are shrinking.

But there is a subtle point worth pondering. The rate cut policy alleviates recession risks, and the decline in bond market volatility sounds like good news. However, my years of experience in project cycles tell me that excessive stability often represents another form of risk. When market volatility hits new lows and risk awareness dulls, it can easily foster asset bubbles and excessive leverage.

Do you remember the market rally in 2021? It lasted too long, and everyone was chasing highs until liquidity suddenly turned, and everything collapsed. The extreme low in US Treasury volatility this time may seem like a sign of ample liquidity on the surface, but it could also be laying the groundwork for the next adjustment.

The key is how long the rate cut cycle can last. If the Fed maintains a loose stance until 2025, this low-volatility environment will continue to enhance the appeal of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. But once inflation data rebounds and forces a policy shift, volatility will rebound more sharply than it fell—this is what we need to be cautious about.